Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities clustered around 17–20°C at 21.5–23.5% each, driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs showing daytime highs of 18–21°C amid variable cloud cover and weak frontal passages. Recent JMA two-week outlooks indicate near-to-slightly above-normal temperatures for early April (historical average ~18°C), influenced by persistent high-pressure ridging over the Sea of Japan, but differing cloud predictions and southerly wind speeds create the razor-thin differentiation—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while patchy rain risks capping at 17–18°C. Watch JMA's daily updates through April 7 for refined guidance on boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 9?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 9?
19°C 25%
18°C 22%
20°C 20%
22°C or higher 14%
NOVO
NOVO
9 abr 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
2%
15°C
5%
16°C
10%
17°C
13%
18°C
22%
19°C
25%
20°C
22%
21°C
10%
22°C or higher
14%
19°C 25%
18°C 22%
20°C 20%
22°C or higher 14%
NOVO
NOVO
9 abr 2026
12°C or below
$194 Vol.
1%
13°C
$299 Vol.
3%
14°C
$123 Vol.
2%
15°C
$29 Vol.
5%
16°C
$7 Vol.
10%
17°C
$12 Vol.
13%
18°C
$126 Vol.
22%
19°C
$55 Vol.
25%
20°C
$10 Vol.
22%
21°C
$17 Vol.
10%
22°C or higher
$14 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities clustered around 17–20°C at 21.5–23.5% each, driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs showing daytime highs of 18–21°C amid variable cloud cover and weak frontal passages. Recent JMA two-week outlooks indicate near-to-slightly above-normal temperatures for early April (historical average ~18°C), influenced by persistent high-pressure ridging over the Sea of Japan, but differing cloud predictions and southerly wind speeds create the razor-thin differentiation—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while patchy rain risks capping at 17–18°C. Watch JMA's daily updates through April 7 for refined guidance on boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 5, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Volume
$881Data de Término
9 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:24 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities clustered around 17–20°C at 21.5–23.5% each, driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs showing daytime highs of 18–21°C amid variable cloud cover and weak frontal passages. Recent JMA two-week outlooks indicate near-to-slightly above-normal temperatures for early April (historical average ~18°C), influenced by persistent high-pressure ridging over the Sea of Japan, but differing cloud predictions and southerly wind speeds create the razor-thin differentiation—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while patchy rain risks capping at 17–18°C. Watch JMA's daily updates through April 7 for refined guidance on boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$881Data de Término
9 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:24 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities clustered around 17–20°C at 21.5–23.5% each, driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs showing daytime highs of 18–21°C amid variable cloud cover and weak frontal passages. Recent JMA two-week outlooks indicate near-to-slightly above-normal temperatures for early April (historical average ~18°C), influenced by persistent high-pressure ridging over the Sea of Japan, but differing cloud predictions and southerly wind speeds create the razor-thin differentiation—clearer skies favor 19–20°C, while patchy rain risks capping at 17–18°C. Watch JMA's daily updates through April 7 for refined guidance on boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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