Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects forecast uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 27, with 27°C (31%) edging 28°C (26%) amid model runs projecting mild early-spring conditions. Latest guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and Hong Kong Observatory indicates daytime highs of 26–29°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds around 10–15 km/h, and low humidity supporting afternoon heating via urban heat island effects in this densely built coastal city. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 1–2°C on peak insolation and sea breeze moderation, aligning with historical March averages of 25–27°C but nudged higher by recent southward retreat of cooler continental air masses over the past week. Key differentiator: any persistent cloudiness could cap at 27°C, while clearer skies favor 28°C; monitor morning radiosonde data and 12Z model updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
27°C 31%
28°C 27%
26°C 19%
29°C 13%
$18,427 Vol.
$18,427 Vol.
21°C or below
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
19%
27°C
31%
28°C
27%
29°C
13%
30°C
5%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 31%
28°C 27%
26°C 19%
29°C 13%
$18,427 Vol.
$18,427 Vol.
21°C or below
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
19%
27°C
31%
28°C
27%
29°C
13%
30°C
5%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects forecast uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 27, with 27°C (31%) edging 28°C (26%) amid model runs projecting mild early-spring conditions. Latest guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and Hong Kong Observatory indicates daytime highs of 26–29°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds around 10–15 km/h, and low humidity supporting afternoon heating via urban heat island effects in this densely built coastal city. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 1–2°C on peak insolation and sea breeze moderation, aligning with historical March averages of 25–27°C but nudged higher by recent southward retreat of cooler continental air masses over the past week. Key differentiator: any persistent cloudiness could cap at 27°C, while clearer skies favor 28°C; monitor morning radiosonde data and 12Z model updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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