Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 21°C as the highest temperature at Shanghai's Xujiahui Observatory on April 1, driven by midday observations peaking near 20–21°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds from the East China Sea, exceeding early April climatological averages of 18–19°C. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converged on this outcome pre-dawn, with real-time data from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau confirming the peak amid partly cloudy skies and minimal cloud interference on solar heating. While inherent measurement variability exists, scenarios challenging this—such as late-afternoon cooling from unexpected showers or station calibration adjustments—are improbable given the day's progression and consistent reporting across NOAA-aligned sources. Final daily records expected by evening UTC.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 1?
21°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$432,249 Vol.
$432,249 Vol.
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$432,249 Vol.
$432,249 Vol.
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 21°C as the highest temperature at Shanghai's Xujiahui Observatory on April 1, driven by midday observations peaking near 20–21°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds from the East China Sea, exceeding early April climatological averages of 18–19°C. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converged on this outcome pre-dawn, with real-time data from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau confirming the peak amid partly cloudy skies and minimal cloud interference on solar heating. While inherent measurement variability exists, scenarios challenging this—such as late-afternoon cooling from unexpected showers or station calibration adjustments—are improbable given the day's progression and consistent reporting across NOAA-aligned sources. Final daily records expected by evening UTC.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions