Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 14°C (32%) for Milan on March 27, closely trailed by 16°C (25.5%) and 15°C (22.5%), reflecting tight forecast model spreads amid springlike conditions. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs project daytime highs in the 13–16°C range, driven by a weak high-pressure ridge over central Europe allowing mild southerly flow, though differing cloud cover and boundary layer mixing create the 1–2°C uncertainty differentiating outcomes. Historical March averages hover around 13°C, but positive temperature anomalies from recent Atlantic warmth support the cluster above climatology. New 00Z model updates expected overnight could refine probabilities, with urban heat island effects in Milan potentially nudging toward the higher end if skies clear.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on March 27?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 27?
14°C 32%
16°C 26%
15°C 24%
13°C 11%
$13,988 Vol.
$13,988 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
4%
13°C
11%
14°C
32%
15°C
24%
16°C
26%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 32%
16°C 26%
15°C 24%
13°C 11%
$13,988 Vol.
$13,988 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
4%
13°C
11%
14°C
32%
15°C
24%
16°C
26%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 14°C (32%) for Milan on March 27, closely trailed by 16°C (25.5%) and 15°C (22.5%), reflecting tight forecast model spreads amid springlike conditions. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs project daytime highs in the 13–16°C range, driven by a weak high-pressure ridge over central Europe allowing mild southerly flow, though differing cloud cover and boundary layer mixing create the 1–2°C uncertainty differentiating outcomes. Historical March averages hover around 13°C, but positive temperature anomalies from recent Atlantic warmth support the cluster above climatology. New 00Z model updates expected overnight could refine probabilities, with urban heat island effects in Milan potentially nudging toward the higher end if skies clear.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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