National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on March 27 indicate highs clustering around 82°F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, fueling the tight trader consensus with 82-83°F at 33% implied probability edging 80-81°F at 27.5%. This positioning stems from a recent cold front mid-week that cooled early March averages, now giving way to warming sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream and neutral ENSO conditions favoring above-normal warmth for late March, where historical highs average 81°F. Model ensembles show minor divergence—GFS leaning warmer into the low 83s, ECMWF cooler near 81°F—hinging on afternoon sea breeze strength and upper-level ridging stability. The NWS 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. updates today could sharpen resolution as the date nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 27?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 27?
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 29%
78-79°F 14%
84-85°F 14%
$20,420 Vol.
$20,420 Vol.
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
29%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 29%
78-79°F 14%
84-85°F 14%
$20,420 Vol.
$20,420 Vol.
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
29%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on March 27 indicate highs clustering around 82°F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, fueling the tight trader consensus with 82-83°F at 33% implied probability edging 80-81°F at 27.5%. This positioning stems from a recent cold front mid-week that cooled early March averages, now giving way to warming sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream and neutral ENSO conditions favoring above-normal warmth for late March, where historical highs average 81°F. Model ensembles show minor divergence—GFS leaning warmer into the low 83s, ECMWF cooler near 81°F—hinging on afternoon sea breeze strength and upper-level ridging stability. The NWS 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. updates today could sharpen resolution as the date nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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