Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 35°C (84.5%) as Lucknow's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicating a daytime peak near that threshold amid clear skies and rising seasonal heat. Recent observations show Lucknow's highs climbing from 32°C earlier in the week to 34°C on March 24, aligning with climatological norms for late March when pre-monsoon warming typically pushes temperatures into the mid-30s Celsius without significant cloud cover or western disturbances. Ensemble model runs from IMD and global counterparts like ECMWF reinforce this outlook, with minimal wind shear or moisture influx to alter trajectories. A slight uptick to 36°C remains possible (13.5%) if solar heating intensifies, but probabilities for extremes above or below dwindle due to stable atmospheric conditions. Updated IMD bulletins expected by evening could refine these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
35°C 86%
36°C 12%
37°C 1.8%
38°C <1%
$107,202 Vol.
$107,202 Vol.
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
86%
36°C
12%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
35°C 86%
36°C 12%
37°C 1.8%
38°C <1%
$107,202 Vol.
$107,202 Vol.
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
86%
36°C
12%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 35°C (84.5%) as Lucknow's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicating a daytime peak near that threshold amid clear skies and rising seasonal heat. Recent observations show Lucknow's highs climbing from 32°C earlier in the week to 34°C on March 24, aligning with climatological norms for late March when pre-monsoon warming typically pushes temperatures into the mid-30s Celsius without significant cloud cover or western disturbances. Ensemble model runs from IMD and global counterparts like ECMWF reinforce this outlook, with minimal wind shear or moisture influx to alter trajectories. A slight uptick to 36°C remains possible (13.5%) if solar heating intensifies, but probabilities for extremes above or below dwindle due to stable atmospheric conditions. Updated IMD bulletins expected by evening could refine these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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