Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 28, with ensemble runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF showing daily highs clustered around 18–20°C (implied probabilities 26% for 20°C, 21.5% for 19°C, 18.5% for 18°C). This stems from mild spring conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where subtropical highs promote warming but persistent light southerly winds and partial cloud cover introduce variability, preventing stronger consensus. Recent 24-hour updates indicate no major cold fronts or heat domes, aligning with seasonal normals of 17–21°C amid neutral ENSO influences. Key differentiators include potential afternoon convective showers capping peaks at 18–19°C versus clearer skies allowing 20–21°C; watch CMA's evening forecast refresh for refined guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
20°C 26%
19°C 22%
18°C 18%
21°C 17%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
18%
19°C
22%
20°C
26%
21°C
17%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
20°C 26%
19°C 22%
18°C 18%
21°C 17%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
18%
19°C
22%
20°C
26%
21°C
17%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 28, with ensemble runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF showing daily highs clustered around 18–20°C (implied probabilities 26% for 20°C, 21.5% for 19°C, 18.5% for 18°C). This stems from mild spring conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where subtropical highs promote warming but persistent light southerly winds and partial cloud cover introduce variability, preventing stronger consensus. Recent 24-hour updates indicate no major cold fronts or heat domes, aligning with seasonal normals of 17–21°C amid neutral ENSO influences. Key differentiators include potential afternoon convective showers capping peaks at 18–19°C versus clearer skies allowing 20–21°C; watch CMA's evening forecast refresh for refined guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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