Market icon
Mundo·Gaza

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

Market icon
Mundo·Gaza

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$928,001 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$928,001 Vol.

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs. This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method. Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs. This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method. Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?" has generated $928K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.