Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around Elon Musk posting 280-339 tweets during March 20-27, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 ranges tied at 11.5% implied probabilities each, reflecting his 2024 average of roughly 40-50 posts daily amid political fervor and company updates. Recent developments, including his DOGE advisory role post-Trump election and sustained X engagement spikes—peaking over 300 weekly during October 2024 campaigns—drive this clustering, as historical data shows variability from Tesla earnings or SpaceX milestones. The tight race between upper- and mid-300s hinges on anticipated event catalysts versus a moderated steady-state pace, underscoring Elon's outsized cultural influence on real-time discourse and market sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$1,169,885 Vol.
$1,169,885 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
8%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
9%
380-399
7%
400-419
5%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$1,169,885 Vol.
$1,169,885 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
8%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
9%
380-399
7%
400-419
5%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around Elon Musk posting 280-339 tweets during March 20-27, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 ranges tied at 11.5% implied probabilities each, reflecting his 2024 average of roughly 40-50 posts daily amid political fervor and company updates. Recent developments, including his DOGE advisory role post-Trump election and sustained X engagement spikes—peaking over 300 weekly during October 2024 campaigns—drive this clustering, as historical data shows variability from Tesla earnings or SpaceX milestones. The tight race between upper- and mid-300s hinges on anticipated event catalysts versus a moderated steady-state pace, underscoring Elon's outsized cultural influence on real-time discourse and market sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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