**Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors the official ARS/USD rate ending 2026 above 1,600 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual depreciation amid 30–33% projected annual inflation.** Current rates hover near 1,487 ARS per USD as of July 2026, following the January 2026 shift to inflation-linked crawling bands that adjust monthly based on lagged CPI data to support reserve accumulation. Analyst forecasts from firms like StoneX and BofA point to levels around 1,630–1,700 by year-end, driven by the need to maintain positive real rates, rebuild central bank reserves, and manage private-sector dollar demand amid fading agricultural inflows. Milei-era disinflation (from over 200% in 2023 to ~33% recently) and fiscal surpluses provide a foundation for stability, yet external pressures—including debt servicing and a fragile monetary anchor—support moderate further weakening rather than sharp stabilization or rapid appreciation. Lower-probability brackets cluster below 1,550, consistent with scenarios requiring faster disinflation or stronger reserve inflows, but recent data and policy mechanics make those less likely in the near term.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1600,00+ 59%
1500,00–1549,99 15.0%
1550,00–1599,99 11.5%
1450,00–1499,99 6.7%
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
<1250,00
3%
1250,00–1299,99
<1%
1300,00–1349,99
<1%
1350,00–1399,99
<1%
1400,00–1449,99
4%
1450,00–1499,99
13%
1500,00–1549,99
15%
1550,00–1599,99
12%
1600,00+
63%
1600,00+ 59%
1500,00–1549,99 15.0%
1550,00–1599,99 11.5%
1450,00–1499,99 6.7%
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
<1250,00
$536 Vol.
3%
1250,00–1299,99
$790 Vol.
<1%
1300,00–1349,99
$677 Vol.
<1%
1350,00–1399,99
$736 Vol.
<1%
1400,00–1449,99
$1,239 Vol.
4%
1450,00–1499,99
$1,264 Vol.
13%
1500,00–1549,99
$1,223 Vol.
15%
1550,00–1599,99
$694 Vol.
12%
1600,00+
$1,902 Vol.
63%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors the official ARS/USD rate ending 2026 above 1,600 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual depreciation amid 30–33% projected annual inflation.**
Current rates hover near 1,487 ARS per USD as of July 2026, following the January 2026 shift to inflation-linked crawling bands that adjust monthly based on lagged CPI data to support reserve accumulation. Analyst forecasts from firms like StoneX and BofA point to levels around 1,630–1,700 by year-end, driven by the need to maintain positive real rates, rebuild central bank reserves, and manage private-sector dollar demand amid fading agricultural inflows.
Milei-era disinflation (from over 200% in 2023 to ~33% recently) and fiscal surpluses provide a foundation for stability, yet external pressures—including debt servicing and a fragile monetary anchor—support moderate further weakening rather than sharp stabilization or rapid appreciation. Lower-probability brackets cluster below 1,550, consistent with scenarios requiring faster disinflation or stronger reserve inflows, but recent data and policy mechanics make those less likely in the near term.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,062Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors the official ARS/USD rate ending 2026 above 1,600 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual depreciation amid 30–33% projected annual inflation.**
Current rates hover near 1,487 ARS per USD as of July 2026, following the January 2026 shift to inflation-linked crawling bands that adjust monthly based on lagged CPI data to support reserve accumulation. Analyst forecasts from firms like StoneX and BofA point to levels around 1,630–1,700 by year-end, driven by the need to maintain positive real rates, rebuild central bank reserves, and manage private-sector dollar demand amid fading agricultural inflows.
Milei-era disinflation (from over 200% in 2023 to ~33% recently) and fiscal surpluses provide a foundation for stability, yet external pressures—including debt servicing and a fragile monetary anchor—support moderate further weakening rather than sharp stabilization or rapid appreciation. Lower-probability brackets cluster below 1,550, consistent with scenarios requiring faster disinflation or stronger reserve inflows, but recent data and policy mechanics make those less likely in the near term.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,062Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors the official ARS/USD rate ending 2026 above 1,600 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual depreciation amid 30–33% projected annual inflation.** Current rates hover near 1,487 ARS per USD as of July 2026, following the January 2026 shift to inflation-linked crawling bands that adjust monthly based on lagged CPI data to support reserve accumulation. Analyst forecasts from firms like StoneX and BofA point to levels around 1,630–1,700 by year-end, driven by the need to maintain positive real rates, rebuild central bank reserves, and manage private-sector dollar demand amid fading agricultural inflows. Milei-era disinflation (from over 200% in 2023 to ~33% recently) and fiscal surpluses provide a foundation for stability, yet external pressures—including debt servicing and a fragile monetary anchor—support moderate further weakening rather than sharp stabilization or rapid appreciation. Lower-probability brackets cluster below 1,550, consistent with scenarios requiring faster disinflation or stronger reserve inflows, but recent data and policy mechanics make those less likely in the near term.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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