Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" opening weekend box office, with >$200M holding a slim 27.5% implied probability amid tightly bunched odds across $160-200M+ bins, signaling competitive dynamics driven by franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. smash ($146M debut) and Nintendo's enduring family appeal. Key differentiators include early tracking estimates buoyed by Illumination's animation track record, robust presales fueled by video game nostalgia, and summer family film demand seen in recent hits like Inside Out 2 ($154M open). However, uncertainty lingers from potential review reactions, competing theatrical releases, and softening audience turnout; watch final weekend forecasts and embargoed critic scores for momentum shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 28%
170-180m 19.0%
180-190m 16.8%
190-200m 15.5%
$223,116 Vol.
$223,116 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
14%
170-180m
19%
180-190m
17%
190-200m
16%
>200m
28%
>200m 28%
170-180m 19.0%
180-190m 16.8%
190-200m 15.5%
$223,116 Vol.
$223,116 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$16,433 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$15,169 Vol.
14%
170-180m
$14,055 Vol.
19%
180-190m
$15,133 Vol.
17%
190-200m
$14,321 Vol.
16%
>200m
$149,356 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" opening weekend box office, with >$200M holding a slim 27.5% implied probability amid tightly bunched odds across $160-200M+ bins, signaling competitive dynamics driven by franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. smash ($146M debut) and Nintendo's enduring family appeal. Key differentiators include early tracking estimates buoyed by Illumination's animation track record, robust presales fueled by video game nostalgia, and summer family film demand seen in recent hits like Inside Out 2 ($154M open). However, uncertainty lingers from potential review reactions, competing theatrical releases, and softening audience turnout; watch final weekend forecasts and embargoed critic scores for momentum shifts.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$223,116End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" opening weekend box office, with >$200M holding a slim 27.5% implied probability amid tightly bunched odds across $160-200M+ bins, signaling competitive dynamics driven by franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. smash ($146M debut) and Nintendo's enduring family appeal. Key differentiators include early tracking estimates buoyed by Illumination's animation track record, robust presales fueled by video game nostalgia, and summer family film demand seen in recent hits like Inside Out 2 ($154M open). However, uncertainty lingers from potential review reactions, competing theatrical releases, and softening audience turnout; watch final weekend forecasts and embargoed critic scores for momentum shifts.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$223,116End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" opening weekend box office, with >$200M holding a slim 27.5% implied probability amid tightly bunched odds across $160-200M+ bins, signaling competitive dynamics driven by franchise momentum from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. smash ($146M debut) and Nintendo's enduring family appeal. Key differentiators include early tracking estimates buoyed by Illumination's animation track record, robust presales fueled by video game nostalgia, and summer family film demand seen in recent hits like Inside Out 2 ($154M open). However, uncertainty lingers from potential review reactions, competing theatrical releases, and softening audience turnout; watch final weekend forecasts and embargoed critic scores for momentum shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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