Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% in its June 10 announcement, reflecting caution amid persistent inflationary pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to elevated crude oil costs, tempering rate-cut expectations reflected in the slim 6.5% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Steady unemployment at 6.7% and modest March job gains of 14,000 further support a pause, aligning with the BoC's March 18 guidance and economist polls anticipating no change through much of 2026. Traders eye the April 29 decision and Monetary Policy Report for updated rate path signals ahead of June.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 89%
25 bps decrease 8%
Increase 3.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
89%
Increase
4%
No change 89%
25 bps decrease 8%
Increase 3.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$477 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$1,231 Vol.
8%
No change
$4,196 Vol.
89%
Increase
$1,187 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% in its June 10 announcement, reflecting caution amid persistent inflationary pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to elevated crude oil costs, tempering rate-cut expectations reflected in the slim 6.5% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Steady unemployment at 6.7% and modest March job gains of 14,000 further support a pause, aligning with the BoC's March 18 guidance and economist polls anticipating no change through much of 2026. Traders eye the April 29 decision and Monetary Policy Report for updated rate path signals ahead of June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,090End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% in its June 10 announcement, reflecting caution amid persistent inflationary pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to elevated crude oil costs, tempering rate-cut expectations reflected in the slim 6.5% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Steady unemployment at 6.7% and modest March job gains of 14,000 further support a pause, aligning with the BoC's March 18 guidance and economist polls anticipating no change through much of 2026. Traders eye the April 29 decision and Monetary Policy Report for updated rate path signals ahead of June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$7,090End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% in its June 10 announcement, reflecting caution amid persistent inflationary pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to elevated crude oil costs, tempering rate-cut expectations reflected in the slim 6.5% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Steady unemployment at 6.7% and modest March job gains of 14,000 further support a pause, aligning with the BoC's March 18 guidance and economist polls anticipating no change through much of 2026. Traders eye the April 29 decision and Monetary Policy Report for updated rate path signals ahead of June.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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