Tarik Skubal leads trader consensus at 25% implied probability for the 2026 AL Cy Young after his unanimous 2024 win, driven by a league-leading 2.39 ERA, 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, and 192 innings that fueled Detroit's playoff surge, with the 28-year-old lefty under team control through 2026. Garrett Crochet (16%) impresses with 209 Ks in 146 innings despite White Sox woes and workload limits, positioning him as a trade candidate for contenders. Dylan Cease (15.4%) boasts career-high 258 Ks and 3.47 ERA post-Padres move, though NL status tempers AL futures unless traded. Jacob deGrom (13.5%) offers ace pedigree if Rangers injury woes subside. Key differentiators: Skubal's durability and track record versus Crochet/Cease's strikeout upside, deGrom's health risks, and free agents like Max Fried (9.6%) eyeing AL landings amid a wide-open rotation landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 17%
Jacob deGrom 11%
Hunter Brown 10%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
17%
Jacob deGrom
11%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
10%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
8%
Kyle Bradish
7%
Joe Ryan
6%
Ranger Suarez
5%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
15%
George Kirby
6%
Carlos Rodón
3%
Kevin Gausman
5%
MacKenzie Gore
6%
Jose Soriano
3%
Pablo Lopez
5%
Gavin Williams
5%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
6%
Gerrit Cole
3%
Tarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 17%
Jacob deGrom 11%
Hunter Brown 10%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
17%
Jacob deGrom
11%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
10%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
8%
Kyle Bradish
7%
Joe Ryan
6%
Ranger Suarez
5%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
15%
George Kirby
6%
Carlos Rodón
3%
Kevin Gausman
5%
MacKenzie Gore
6%
Jose Soriano
3%
Pablo Lopez
5%
Gavin Williams
5%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
6%
Gerrit Cole
3%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarik Skubal leads trader consensus at 25% implied probability for the 2026 AL Cy Young after his unanimous 2024 win, driven by a league-leading 2.39 ERA, 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, and 192 innings that fueled Detroit's playoff surge, with the 28-year-old lefty under team control through 2026. Garrett Crochet (16%) impresses with 209 Ks in 146 innings despite White Sox woes and workload limits, positioning him as a trade candidate for contenders. Dylan Cease (15.4%) boasts career-high 258 Ks and 3.47 ERA post-Padres move, though NL status tempers AL futures unless traded. Jacob deGrom (13.5%) offers ace pedigree if Rangers injury woes subside. Key differentiators: Skubal's durability and track record versus Crochet/Cease's strikeout upside, deGrom's health risks, and free agents like Max Fried (9.6%) eyeing AL landings amid a wide-open rotation landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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