The August 2026 CPI release, published September 11, delivered a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month-over-month increase that precisely matched consensus forecasts, driving the market-implied probability for this outcome to 100%. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the headline move, while shelter advanced 0.3% and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, in line with expectations and prior July readings of +0.1% headline and +0.2% core. Year-over-year inflation held steady at 3.4%, with the 12-month core rate easing to 2.4%. Traders priced in the exact print immediately upon confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. The next relevant data point is the September CPI release scheduled for October 14.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.4% 100.0%
≤-0.3% <1%
-0.2% <1%
-0.1% <1%
$76,753 Vol.
$76,753 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
No
-0.2%
No
-0.1%
No
0.0%
No
0.1%
No
0.2%
No
0.3%
No
0.4%
Yes
≥0.5%
No
0.4% 100.0%
≤-0.3% <1%
-0.2% <1%
-0.1% <1%
$76,753 Vol.
$76,753 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
$2,282 Vol.
No
-0.2%
$2,289 Vol.
No
-0.1%
$2,644 Vol.
No
0.0%
$3,693 Vol.
No
0.1%
$3,349 Vol.
No
0.2%
$6,734 Vol.
No
0.3%
$8,659 Vol.
No
0.4%
$18,893 Vol.
Yes
≥0.5%
$28,211 Vol.
No
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The August 2026 CPI release, published September 11, delivered a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month-over-month increase that precisely matched consensus forecasts, driving the market-implied probability for this outcome to 100%. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the headline move, while shelter advanced 0.3% and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, in line with expectations and prior July readings of +0.1% headline and +0.2% core. Year-over-year inflation held steady at 3.4%, with the 12-month core rate easing to 2.4%. Traders priced in the exact print immediately upon confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. The next relevant data point is the September CPI release scheduled for October 14.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$76,753End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The August 2026 CPI release, published September 11, delivered a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month-over-month increase that precisely matched consensus forecasts, driving the market-implied probability for this outcome to 100%. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the headline move, while shelter advanced 0.3% and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, in line with expectations and prior July readings of +0.1% headline and +0.2% core. Year-over-year inflation held steady at 3.4%, with the 12-month core rate easing to 2.4%. Traders priced in the exact print immediately upon confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. The next relevant data point is the September CPI release scheduled for October 14.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$76,753End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The August 2026 CPI release, published September 11, delivered a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month-over-month increase that precisely matched consensus forecasts, driving the market-implied probability for this outcome to 100%. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the headline move, while shelter advanced 0.3% and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, in line with expectations and prior July readings of +0.1% headline and +0.2% core. Year-over-year inflation held steady at 3.4%, with the 12-month core rate easing to 2.4%. Traders priced in the exact print immediately upon confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. The next relevant data point is the September CPI release scheduled for October 14.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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