**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 0.3% or 0.4% monthly rise in the August 2026 CPI, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%, consistent with consensus forecasts around 0.35–0.39% MoM.** July’s soft 0.1% headline print (core +0.2%) set a low base, but analysts anticipate a rebound from rising gasoline prices—the first increase since May—alongside firmer food costs and continued shelter/services pressure. Core CPI projections cluster near 0.24% MoM. The September 11 BLS release arrives just days before the FOMC meeting, keeping focus on whether energy and housing components push the outcome toward the upper end of the favored range or allow a softer 0.3% result. Recent labor-market softening provides a modest counterbalance but has not materially altered the near-term inflation trajectory in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.4% 48%
0.3% 36%
≥0.5% 13%
0.2% 5.1%
$36,946 Vol.
$36,946 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
<1%
-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
1%
0.1%
3%
0.2%
5%
0.3%
36%
0.4%
48%
≥0.5%
13%
0.4% 48%
0.3% 36%
≥0.5% 13%
0.2% 5.1%
$36,946 Vol.
$36,946 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
-0.2%
$807 Vol.
<1%
-0.1%
$937 Vol.
<1%
0.0%
$1,442 Vol.
1%
0.1%
$1,574 Vol.
3%
0.2%
$2,601 Vol.
5%
0.3%
$4,219 Vol.
36%
0.4%
$9,837 Vol.
48%
≥0.5%
$14,318 Vol.
13%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 0.3% or 0.4% monthly rise in the August 2026 CPI, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%, consistent with consensus forecasts around 0.35–0.39% MoM.**
July’s soft 0.1% headline print (core +0.2%) set a low base, but analysts anticipate a rebound from rising gasoline prices—the first increase since May—alongside firmer food costs and continued shelter/services pressure. Core CPI projections cluster near 0.24% MoM. The September 11 BLS release arrives just days before the FOMC meeting, keeping focus on whether energy and housing components push the outcome toward the upper end of the favored range or allow a softer 0.3% result. Recent labor-market softening provides a modest counterbalance but has not materially altered the near-term inflation trajectory in trader positioning.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$36,946End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 0.3% or 0.4% monthly rise in the August 2026 CPI, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%, consistent with consensus forecasts around 0.35–0.39% MoM.**
July’s soft 0.1% headline print (core +0.2%) set a low base, but analysts anticipate a rebound from rising gasoline prices—the first increase since May—alongside firmer food costs and continued shelter/services pressure. Core CPI projections cluster near 0.24% MoM. The September 11 BLS release arrives just days before the FOMC meeting, keeping focus on whether energy and housing components push the outcome toward the upper end of the favored range or allow a softer 0.3% result. Recent labor-market softening provides a modest counterbalance but has not materially altered the near-term inflation trajectory in trader positioning.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$36,946End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 0.3% or 0.4% monthly rise in the August 2026 CPI, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%, consistent with consensus forecasts around 0.35–0.39% MoM.** July’s soft 0.1% headline print (core +0.2%) set a low base, but analysts anticipate a rebound from rising gasoline prices—the first increase since May—alongside firmer food costs and continued shelter/services pressure. Core CPI projections cluster near 0.24% MoM. The September 11 BLS release arrives just days before the FOMC meeting, keeping focus on whether energy and housing components push the outcome toward the upper end of the favored range or allow a softer 0.3% result. Recent labor-market softening provides a modest counterbalance but has not materially altered the near-term inflation trajectory in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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