Recent August core CPI data, which rose 0.29% month-over-month against expectations near 0.2%, has anchored trader focus on persistence in services components, particularly after a notable wireless services spike. TD Securities and other forecasters project September core CPI moderating to 0.20% as shelter and supercore inflation mean-revert, with core goods providing modest support from vehicle prices. The Cleveland Fed’s September nowcast implies a 2.39% year-over-year rate, consistent with gradual disinflation. Market-implied odds favoring 0.2% or 0.3% outcomes reflect this base case for cooling services alongside risks from airfares, medical care, and any residual tariff effects on goods. The September 11 FOMC decision and October 14 release will test whether the August firmness proves transitory.