Recent August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly increase driven largely by a 3.9% gasoline surge, has anchored trader expectations for September's annual rate near 3.6%. Persistent core services pressures, elevated energy volatility, and the FOMC's September 16 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range—alongside updated projections showing 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026—support the market's clustering around 3.6-3.7% outcomes. These levels price in limited near-term disinflation despite cooling shelter trends and base effects, with the upcoming mid-October release serving as the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.6% 45%
3.7% 26%
3.5% 20%
3.8% 5.6%
$53,956 Vol.
$53,956 Vol.
≤2.9%
<1%
3.0%
<1%
3.1%
<1%
3.2%
<1%
3.3%
<1%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
20%
3.6%
45%
3.7%
26%
3.8%
6%
3.9%
1%
≥4.0%
1%
3.6% 45%
3.7% 26%
3.5% 20%
3.8% 5.6%
$53,956 Vol.
$53,956 Vol.
≤2.9%
<1%
3.0%
<1%
3.1%
<1%
3.2%
<1%
3.3%
<1%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
20%
3.6%
45%
3.7%
26%
3.8%
6%
3.9%
1%
≥4.0%
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly increase driven largely by a 3.9% gasoline surge, has anchored trader expectations for September's annual rate near 3.6%. Persistent core services pressures, elevated energy volatility, and the FOMC's September 16 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range—alongside updated projections showing 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026—support the market's clustering around 3.6-3.7% outcomes. These levels price in limited near-term disinflation despite cooling shelter trends and base effects, with the upcoming mid-October release serving as the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions