Climate & Science·Science

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Climate & Science·Science

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Ended: Apr 10

May 10

Ended: Apr 10

May 10

4th or lower 100.0%

1st hottest <1%

2nd hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

$347,331 Vol.

$347,331 Vol.

Apr 10, 2026

1st hottest

$128,705 Vol.

No

2nd hottest

$68,210 Vol.

No

3rd hottest

$105,097 Vol.

No

4th or lower

$45,319 Vol.

Yes

4th or lower 100.0%

1st hottest <1%

2nd hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

$347,331 Vol.

$347,331 Vol.

Apr 10, 2026

1st hottest

$128,705 Vol.

No

2nd hottest

$68,210 Vol.

No

3rd hottest

$105,097 Vol.

No

4th or lower

$45,319 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Related

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

Beware of external links.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4th or lower" at 100%, followed by "1st hottest" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" has generated $347.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is "4th or lower" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1st hottest" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $347.3K traded on “2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "4th or lower" in the "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "4th or lower" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" market has an active community of 565 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.