**USGS real-time earthquake catalog confirms zero magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide from April 13-19, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero occurrences.** The largest quake in that period was a M5.7 shallow event 20 km east-southeast of Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14, followed by smaller tremors like M5.5 in the Carlsberg Ridge on April 18—none reaching the 6.5 threshold per moment magnitude (mww) scale. Globally, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one per week based on historical USGS data spanning active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, but seismic quietude prevailed here amid typical variability. Rare post-event magnitude revisions by USGS analysts could theoretically challenge this, though final reviewed catalogs rarely shift beyond 0.2 units after initial reports. Traders await official closure of the monitoring window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$85,787 Vol.
$85,787 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
>5
No
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$85,787 Vol.
$85,787 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
0
$34,733 Vol.
Yes
1
$15,971 Vol.
No
2
$10,767 Vol.
No
3
$7,719 Vol.
No
4
$8,810 Vol.
No
5
$3,590 Vol.
No
>5
$4,196 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**USGS real-time earthquake catalog confirms zero magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide from April 13-19, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero occurrences.** The largest quake in that period was a M5.7 shallow event 20 km east-southeast of Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14, followed by smaller tremors like M5.5 in the Carlsberg Ridge on April 18—none reaching the 6.5 threshold per moment magnitude (mww) scale. Globally, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one per week based on historical USGS data spanning active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, but seismic quietude prevailed here amid typical variability. Rare post-event magnitude revisions by USGS analysts could theoretically challenge this, though final reviewed catalogs rarely shift beyond 0.2 units after initial reports. Traders await official closure of the monitoring window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$85,787End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**USGS real-time earthquake catalog confirms zero magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide from April 13-19, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero occurrences.** The largest quake in that period was a M5.7 shallow event 20 km east-southeast of Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14, followed by smaller tremors like M5.5 in the Carlsberg Ridge on April 18—none reaching the 6.5 threshold per moment magnitude (mww) scale. Globally, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one per week based on historical USGS data spanning active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, but seismic quietude prevailed here amid typical variability. Rare post-event magnitude revisions by USGS analysts could theoretically challenge this, though final reviewed catalogs rarely shift beyond 0.2 units after initial reports. Traders await official closure of the monitoring window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$85,787End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**USGS real-time earthquake catalog confirms zero magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide from April 13-19, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for zero occurrences.** The largest quake in that period was a M5.7 shallow event 20 km east-southeast of Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14, followed by smaller tremors like M5.5 in the Carlsberg Ridge on April 18—none reaching the 6.5 threshold per moment magnitude (mww) scale. Globally, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one per week based on historical USGS data spanning active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, but seismic quietude prevailed here amid typical variability. Rare post-event magnitude revisions by USGS analysts could theoretically challenge this, though final reviewed catalogs rarely shift beyond 0.2 units after initial reports. Traders await official closure of the monitoring window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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