Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism about reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 41.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic's 37.5%, driven by recent frontier models like OpenAI's GPT-5.2-chat and Google's Gemini-3-Pro plateauing around 1478—still 70+ points shy despite aggressive scaling efforts. Anthropic leads contenders via Claude Sonnet 4.6's dominance in multi-turn reasoning, instruction-following, and coding benchmarks, bolstered by leaks of the ultra-capable Claude Mythos model. Google and OpenAI lag on optimization speed, while xAI's Grok 4.20 and open challengers like DeepSeek 3.2 and Z.ai's GLM-5 show promise but face compute and data bottlenecks. Key swings hinge on Q2 announcements and LMSYS battle data amid maturing large language model capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 44%
None in 2026 35%
Google 11%
OpenAI 8%
$24,244 Vol.
$24,244 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
38%
None in 2026
42%
11%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Alibaba
2%
Mistral
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 44%
None in 2026 35%
Google 11%
OpenAI 8%
$24,244 Vol.
$24,244 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$2,773 Vol.
38%
None in 2026
$4,215 Vol.
42%
$3,898 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$3,840 Vol.
8%
xAI
$3,211 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$1,772 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$1,668 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$1,631 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism about reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 41.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic's 37.5%, driven by recent frontier models like OpenAI's GPT-5.2-chat and Google's Gemini-3-Pro plateauing around 1478—still 70+ points shy despite aggressive scaling efforts. Anthropic leads contenders via Claude Sonnet 4.6's dominance in multi-turn reasoning, instruction-following, and coding benchmarks, bolstered by leaks of the ultra-capable Claude Mythos model. Google and OpenAI lag on optimization speed, while xAI's Grok 4.20 and open challengers like DeepSeek 3.2 and Z.ai's GLM-5 show promise but face compute and data bottlenecks. Key swings hinge on Q2 announcements and LMSYS battle data amid maturing large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$24,244End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism about reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 41.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic's 37.5%, driven by recent frontier models like OpenAI's GPT-5.2-chat and Google's Gemini-3-Pro plateauing around 1478—still 70+ points shy despite aggressive scaling efforts. Anthropic leads contenders via Claude Sonnet 4.6's dominance in multi-turn reasoning, instruction-following, and coding benchmarks, bolstered by leaks of the ultra-capable Claude Mythos model. Google and OpenAI lag on optimization speed, while xAI's Grok 4.20 and open challengers like DeepSeek 3.2 and Z.ai's GLM-5 show promise but face compute and data bottlenecks. Key swings hinge on Q2 announcements and LMSYS battle data amid maturing large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$24,244End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism about reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 41.5% slightly ahead of Anthropic's 37.5%, driven by recent frontier models like OpenAI's GPT-5.2-chat and Google's Gemini-3-Pro plateauing around 1478—still 70+ points shy despite aggressive scaling efforts. Anthropic leads contenders via Claude Sonnet 4.6's dominance in multi-turn reasoning, instruction-following, and coding benchmarks, bolstered by leaks of the ultra-capable Claude Mythos model. Google and OpenAI lag on optimization speed, while xAI's Grok 4.20 and open challengers like DeepSeek 3.2 and Z.ai's GLM-5 show promise but face compute and data bottlenecks. Key swings hinge on Q2 announcements and LMSYS battle data amid maturing large language model capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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