Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through late April, per National Hurricane Center, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA fireball data. Recent developments include routine seismic activity with several magnitude 7+ quakes but none approaching 8.5 thresholds, minimal volcanic unrest globally, and no large meteor events. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under La Niña conditions—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—reducing Cat 5 landfall odds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Watch NOAA updates and June hurricane season onset for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$214,581 Vol.
$214,581 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$214,581 Vol.
$214,581 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through late April, per National Hurricane Center, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA fireball data. Recent developments include routine seismic activity with several magnitude 7+ quakes but none approaching 8.5 thresholds, minimal volcanic unrest globally, and no large meteor events. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under La Niña conditions—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—reducing Cat 5 landfall odds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Watch NOAA updates and June hurricane season onset for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$214,581End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through late April, per National Hurricane Center, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA fireball data. Recent developments include routine seismic activity with several magnitude 7+ quakes but none approaching 8.5 thresholds, minimal volcanic unrest globally, and no large meteor events. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under La Niña conditions—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—reducing Cat 5 landfall odds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Watch NOAA updates and June hurricane season onset for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$214,581End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through late April, per National Hurricane Center, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA fireball data. Recent developments include routine seismic activity with several magnitude 7+ quakes but none approaching 8.5 thresholds, minimal volcanic unrest globally, and no large meteor events. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under La Niña conditions—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—reducing Cat 5 landfall odds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Watch NOAA updates and June hurricane season onset for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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