Market icon
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

Market icon
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

$5,167,599 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$5,167,599 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$2,963,833 Vol.

3%

April 30

$1,330,329 Vol.

22%

May 31

$35,349 Vol.

30%

June 30

$14,550 Vol.

40%

December 31

$823,538 Vol.

53%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei around March 1, 2026, triggering a rapid succession process under the constitution where the Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader on March 8. Mojtaba, a hardliner with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a written statement on March 12 reaffirming regime commitments amid the ongoing war, but has made no public appearances, fueling unverified rumors of injury or incapacity. President Trump claimed on March 30 that regime change has occurred with a "professional" new leadership group, though Iranian state media reports continuity and nightly pro-government demonstrations persist. Traders watch for IRGC consolidation, potential council interventions, or diplomatic signals that could signal further instability before any resolution date.

US-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei around March 1, 2026, triggering a rapid succession process under the constitution where the Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader on March 8. Mojtaba, a hardliner with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a written statement on March 12 reaffirming regime commitments amid the ongoing war, but has made no public appearances, fueling unverified rumors of injury or incapacity. President Trump claimed on March 30 that regime change has occurred with a "professional" new leadership group, though Iranian state media reports continuity and nightly pro-government demonstrations persist. Traders watch for IRGC consolidation, potential council interventions, or diplomatic signals that could signal further instability before any resolution date.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei around March 1, 2026, triggering a rapid succession process under the constitution where the Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader on March 8. Mojtaba, a hardliner with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a written statement on March 12 reaffirming regime commitments amid the ongoing war, but has made no public appearances, fueling unverified rumors of injury or incapacity. President Trump claimed on March 30 that regime change has occurred with a "professional" new leadership group, though Iranian state media reports continuity and nightly pro-government demonstrations persist. Traders watch for IRGC consolidation, potential council interventions, or diplomatic signals that could signal further instability before any resolution date.

US-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei around March 1, 2026, triggering a rapid succession process under the constitution where the Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader on March 8. Mojtaba, a hardliner with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a written statement on March 12 reaffirming regime commitments amid the ongoing war, but has made no public appearances, fueling unverified rumors of injury or incapacity. President Trump claimed on March 30 that regime change has occurred with a "professional" new leadership group, though Iranian state media reports continuity and nightly pro-government demonstrations persist. Traders watch for IRGC consolidation, potential council interventions, or diplomatic signals that could signal further instability before any resolution date.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

38%
Market icon

Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

32%
Leadership Change
Market icon

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

9%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leadership change by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 53%, followed by "June 30" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leadership change by...?" has generated $5.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leadership change by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leadership change by...?" is "December 31" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leadership change by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.