Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in early March 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes prompted swift appointment of his son Mojtaba as Supreme Leader on March 9, but recent intelligence reports from late March indicate Mojtaba is seriously wounded, hospitalized, and unresponsive, with no public appearances fueling a perceived power vacuum. The IRGC has consolidated de facto control amid ongoing bombardment and retaliation, including Aerospace Force commander statements on March 29 vowing further strikes. Internal fractures and wartime pressures heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, as the Assembly of Experts weighs succession procedures; traders monitor for official health disclosures or emergency council actions that could trigger market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$5,163,113 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
March 31
3%
April 30
22%
May 31
31%
June 30
39%
December 31
53%
$5,163,113 Vol.
March 31
$2,963,325 Vol.
3%
April 30
$1,330,200 Vol.
22%
May 31
$35,091 Vol.
31%
June 30
$14,537 Vol.
39%
December 31
$820,040 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in early March 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes prompted swift appointment of his son Mojtaba as Supreme Leader on March 9, but recent intelligence reports from late March indicate Mojtaba is seriously wounded, hospitalized, and unresponsive, with no public appearances fueling a perceived power vacuum. The IRGC has consolidated de facto control amid ongoing bombardment and retaliation, including Aerospace Force commander statements on March 29 vowing further strikes. Internal fractures and wartime pressures heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, as the Assembly of Experts weighs succession procedures; traders monitor for official health disclosures or emergency council actions that could trigger market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$5,163,113End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in early March 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes prompted swift appointment of his son Mojtaba as Supreme Leader on March 9, but recent intelligence reports from late March indicate Mojtaba is seriously wounded, hospitalized, and unresponsive, with no public appearances fueling a perceived power vacuum. The IRGC has consolidated de facto control amid ongoing bombardment and retaliation, including Aerospace Force commander statements on March 29 vowing further strikes. Internal fractures and wartime pressures heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, as the Assembly of Experts weighs succession procedures; traders monitor for official health disclosures or emergency council actions that could trigger market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,163,113End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final outcome: No
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in early March 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes prompted swift appointment of his son Mojtaba as Supreme Leader on March 9, but recent intelligence reports from late March indicate Mojtaba is seriously wounded, hospitalized, and unresponsive, with no public appearances fueling a perceived power vacuum. The IRGC has consolidated de facto control amid ongoing bombardment and retaliation, including Aerospace Force commander statements on March 29 vowing further strikes. Internal fractures and wartime pressures heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, as the Assembly of Experts weighs succession procedures; traders monitor for official health disclosures or emergency council actions that could trigger market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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