Erdoğan’s presidential term runs through 2028, and senior advisers and ministers have publicly confirmed plans to hold the next election in April 2028 via a parliamentary vote requiring 360 seats, a step that would allow him to seek another term under constitutional rules. The ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds sufficient leverage to advance this timeline, while the main opposition remains fragmented after court actions against its leadership and the detention of key figures such as Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. No elections, referendums, or mandatory succession procedures fall within the December 2026 window. Trader pricing at 95.5% for “No” aligns with this institutional continuity and the lack of immediate catalysts for removal. Only an abrupt health crisis or unforeseen parliamentary realignment could still shift the outcome before year-end.