Erdoğan’s continued hold on the Turkish presidency through the end of 2026 rests on his party’s parliamentary majority alongside the MHP, firm institutional control, and a constitutional term extending to 2028. Recent statements from senior advisers have reaffirmed plans for an early 2028 vote that would enable another candidacy, while the opposition remains fragmented and key challengers face legal constraints. Health concerns have surfaced periodically but have not altered his public schedule or decision-making capacity in recent months. Trader consensus on the low probability of removal reflects these structural barriers. Plausible shifts could still arise from a sudden acute health event, an unexpected parliamentary realignment, or a major internal coalition fracture before the resolution date.