Erdoğan’s constitutionally mandated presidential term runs through 2028, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May of that year and no early vote or removal process underway as of mid-2026. The ruling alliance retains parliamentary control, enabling it to manage legislative and institutional levers that have historically supported continuity in power. Recent months have seen continued consolidation measures, including actions against opposition figures, alongside public speculation about potential constitutional adjustments, yet no verified developments have altered the timeline for a leadership transition before the market’s December 2026 cutoff. Traders price the “No” outcome at 92.5 percent, reflecting the absence of imminent constitutional, electoral, or institutional triggers that would force Erdoğan from office within the resolution window.