Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for 2028, with senior ruling party figures confirming in September 2026 that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plans to run again for what they describe as a final term, using a constitutional provision allowing an incumbent in their second term to seek re-election if parliament calls an early vote. His current mandate extends well beyond December 2026, and the ruling alliance holds sufficient parliamentary leverage to pursue this path while opposition parties face ongoing legal pressures. Traders assign only a 4.5% chance of Erdoğan leaving office by the deadline because no scheduled election, resignation trigger, or institutional mechanism points to an earlier exit. Late developments such as acute health complications or an unexpected parliamentary realignment could still alter the timeline before year-end, though neither appears imminent based on recent statements.