Erdoğan maintains firm control over Turkey’s executive presidency through 2026, backed by his Justice and Development Party alliance’s parliamentary majority and recent official statements confirming plans to seek another term in a possible April 2028 vote via early election renewal under Article 116. This constitutional mechanism, combined with the absence of scheduled votes or snap elections before 2027 and the weakening of major opposition figures through legal proceedings, underpins trader consensus that he will remain in office. Speculation around his health has prompted internal positioning but has not produced verifiable developments forcing an exit. Low-probability shifts could still arise from abrupt medical complications, severe economic instability, or unexpected parliamentary defections altering the balance before year-end.