**Erdoğan's current presidential term extends through 2028, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary or constitutional process in place for an earlier vote or removal.** Recent statements from senior advisers and ministers, including plans for a possible April 2028 early election to enable another candidacy, underscore the ruling AKP-MHP alliance's strategy to maintain continuity. The alliance controls sufficient seats to block opposition initiatives, while leading challengers remain sidelined through legal proceedings and the main opposition faces internal divisions. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% "No" price aligns with this stable institutional position. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31, 2026, include a sudden health event forcing resignation, a major economic crisis triggering widespread unrest, or an unexpected collapse of the governing alliance that opens a path to early parliamentary action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
5% chance
$640,856 Vol.
$640,856 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 3.25%
5% chance
$640,856 Vol.
$640,856 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan's current presidential term extends through 2028, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary or constitutional process in place for an earlier vote or removal.** Recent statements from senior advisers and ministers, including plans for a possible April 2028 early election to enable another candidacy, underscore the ruling AKP-MHP alliance's strategy to maintain continuity. The alliance controls sufficient seats to block opposition initiatives, while leading challengers remain sidelined through legal proceedings and the main opposition faces internal divisions. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% "No" price aligns with this stable institutional position.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31, 2026, include a sudden health event forcing resignation, a major economic crisis triggering widespread unrest, or an unexpected collapse of the governing alliance that opens a path to early parliamentary action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$640,856End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan's current presidential term extends through 2028, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary or constitutional process in place for an earlier vote or removal.** Recent statements from senior advisers and ministers, including plans for a possible April 2028 early election to enable another candidacy, underscore the ruling AKP-MHP alliance's strategy to maintain continuity. The alliance controls sufficient seats to block opposition initiatives, while leading challengers remain sidelined through legal proceedings and the main opposition faces internal divisions. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% "No" price aligns with this stable institutional position.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31, 2026, include a sudden health event forcing resignation, a major economic crisis triggering widespread unrest, or an unexpected collapse of the governing alliance that opens a path to early parliamentary action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$640,856End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...**Erdoğan's current presidential term extends through 2028, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary or constitutional process in place for an earlier vote or removal.** Recent statements from senior advisers and ministers, including plans for a possible April 2028 early election to enable another candidacy, underscore the ruling AKP-MHP alliance's strategy to maintain continuity. The alliance controls sufficient seats to block opposition initiatives, while leading challengers remain sidelined through legal proceedings and the main opposition faces internal divisions. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% "No" price aligns with this stable institutional position. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31, 2026, include a sudden health event forcing resignation, a major economic crisis triggering widespread unrest, or an unexpected collapse of the governing alliance that opens a path to early parliamentary action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions