Market icon
Geopolitics·Turkey

Erdoğan out by end of 2026?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Turkey

Erdoğan out by end of 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

13% chance
Polymarket

$264,047 Vol.

13% chance
Polymarket

$264,047 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is removed from power for any length of time between July 24, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Erdoğan will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Türkiye within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is removed from power for any length of time between July 24, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Erdoğan will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Türkiye within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$264,047
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is removed from power for any length of time between July 24, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Erdoğan will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Türkiye within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is removed from power for any length of time between July 24, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Erdoğan will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Türkiye within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is removed from power for any length of time between July 24, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Erdoğan will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Türkiye within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$264,047
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is removed from power for any length of time between July 24, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Erdoğan will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Türkiye within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Erdoğan out by end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 13% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 13¢, the market collectively assigns a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Erdoğan out by end of 2026?" has generated $264K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Erdoğan out by end of 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Erdoğan out by end of 2026?" is 13% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Erdoğan out by end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.