Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces low near-term exit risk, with traders pricing only single-digit implied probability for departure by end-2026 and around one-third by end-2027. His ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds 326 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed under Article 116 to call early elections that would reset term-limit rules and permit a 2028 candidacy. Recent statements from MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum in September-October 2026 explicitly advocate renewing elections in April 2028 to enable that run, framing it as Erdoğan’s final term. No verified health, legal, or coalition developments have altered this trajectory, while domestic opposition remains fragmented amid ongoing institutional alignment around the incumbent. Scheduled diplomatic and parliamentary activity through late 2026 offers limited near-term catalysts for change.