Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from March 23-25, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by his historical average of 12-20 posts per day tracked over the past year via analytics sites like SocialBlade. Recent months show moderated activity post-2024 election spikes—averaging 15 daily amid fewer controversies and increased delegation to Grok AI—aligning with non-event weekdays rather than viral surges exceeding 50 posts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects "wisdom of crowds" pricing for baseline engagement without scheduled Tesla launches or political catalysts. An upset to 65-89 would require unexpected breaking news, like a major SpaceX milestone or public feud, sparking his signature rapid-fire response style.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$3,127,879 Vol.
$3,127,879 Vol.
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$3,127,879 Vol.
$3,127,879 Vol.
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from March 23-25, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by his historical average of 12-20 posts per day tracked over the past year via analytics sites like SocialBlade. Recent months show moderated activity post-2024 election spikes—averaging 15 daily amid fewer controversies and increased delegation to Grok AI—aligning with non-event weekdays rather than viral surges exceeding 50 posts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects "wisdom of crowds" pricing for baseline engagement without scheduled Tesla launches or political catalysts. An upset to 65-89 would require unexpected breaking news, like a major SpaceX milestone or public feud, sparking his signature rapid-fire response style.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions