Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 260-279 tweets during March 20-27, 2026 (65.6% implied probability), reflecting his established pattern of high-volume X activity averaging around 35-40 posts daily amid ongoing political commentary, SpaceX updates, and meme-driven engagements. Recent weeks show sustained output in this range, bolstered by his role in the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where public statements and real-time responses to critics keep momentum high—last week's count hit 272 amid policy debates. Lower odds for 280+ (28.5% peak) account for potential lulls from executive demands, while negligible support for extremes underscores barriers like platform algorithm shifts or personal downtime. Watch for mid-March 2026 catalysts like Tesla earnings or SpaceX launches that could spike volume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated260-279 65.4%
280-299 30%
300-319 5%
320-339 <1%
$9,374,105 Vol.
$9,374,105 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
260-279
65%
280-299
30%
300-319
5%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 65.4%
280-299 30%
300-319 5%
320-339 <1%
$9,374,105 Vol.
$9,374,105 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
260-279
$614,437 Vol.
65%
280-299
$602,887 Vol.
30%
300-319
$508,578 Vol.
5%
320-339
$541,400 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$615,987 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$589,832 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$480,787 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$397,184 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$400,574 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$287,345 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$342,108 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$374,540 Vol.
<1%
500-519
$190,683 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$190,271 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$184,823 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$140,532 Vol.
<1%
580+
$249,199 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 260-279 tweets during March 20-27, 2026 (65.6% implied probability), reflecting his established pattern of high-volume X activity averaging around 35-40 posts daily amid ongoing political commentary, SpaceX updates, and meme-driven engagements. Recent weeks show sustained output in this range, bolstered by his role in the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where public statements and real-time responses to critics keep momentum high—last week's count hit 272 amid policy debates. Lower odds for 280+ (28.5% peak) account for potential lulls from executive demands, while negligible support for extremes underscores barriers like platform algorithm shifts or personal downtime. Watch for mid-March 2026 catalysts like Tesla earnings or SpaceX launches that could spike volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$9,374,105End Date
Mar 27, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 260-279 tweets during March 20-27, 2026 (65.6% implied probability), reflecting his established pattern of high-volume X activity averaging around 35-40 posts daily amid ongoing political commentary, SpaceX updates, and meme-driven engagements. Recent weeks show sustained output in this range, bolstered by his role in the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where public statements and real-time responses to critics keep momentum high—last week's count hit 272 amid policy debates. Lower odds for 280+ (28.5% peak) account for potential lulls from executive demands, while negligible support for extremes underscores barriers like platform algorithm shifts or personal downtime. Watch for mid-March 2026 catalysts like Tesla earnings or SpaceX launches that could spike volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$9,374,105End Date
Mar 27, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 260-279 tweets during March 20-27, 2026 (65.6% implied probability), reflecting his established pattern of high-volume X activity averaging around 35-40 posts daily amid ongoing political commentary, SpaceX updates, and meme-driven engagements. Recent weeks show sustained output in this range, bolstered by his role in the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where public statements and real-time responses to critics keep momentum high—last week's count hit 272 amid policy debates. Lower odds for 280+ (28.5% peak) account for potential lulls from executive demands, while negligible support for extremes underscores barriers like platform algorithm shifts or personal downtime. Watch for mid-March 2026 catalysts like Tesla earnings or SpaceX launches that could spike volume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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