Somalia 100.0%
Yemen <1%
Cuba <1%
Venezuela <1%
$4,340,925 Vol.
$4,340,925 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Yemen
$217,348 Vol.
No
Cuba
$106,264 Vol.
No
Venezuela
$465,515 Vol.
No
Somalia
$883,692 Vol.
Yes
Iraq
$172,734 Vol.
No
Iran
$1,732,825 Vol.
No
Nigeria
$54,577 Vol.
No
Syria
$102,377 Vol.
No
Other
$101,010 Vol.
No
None before 2027
$218,684 Vol.
No
Mexico
$75,154 Vol.
No
Colombia
$210,746 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country that is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike.
In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied:
If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to have occurred on the reported date at 12:00 PM in the time zone in which the strike occurred.
In the case of multiple strikes being announced/reported to have occurred on the same date, with a lack of a precise time being reported for one or multiple of the strikes, a consensus of credible reporting establishing which strike occurred first may be used to resolve the market even if the precise times of the strike(s) aren’t known.
If no consensus of the order of the strikes exists, the market will resolve based on assuming a strike time of 12 PM local time (on the listed strike date) for any strike without a published time.
If a tie still persists due to a shared time zone, the market will resolve according to the order they were announced in.
If publication timestamps are identical or cannot be reliably compared, the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the struck countries listed names.
The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
RSS and transient postings: RSS entries, cached snippets, archives, or temporary/removed webpages will not alone qualify.This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country that is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike.
In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied:
If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to have occurred on the reported date at 12:00 PM in the time zone in which the strike occurred.
In the case of multiple strikes being announced/reported to have occurred on the same date, with a lack of a precise time being reported for one or multiple of the strikes, a consensus of credible reporting establishing which strike occurred first may be used to resolve the market even if the precise times of the strike(s) aren’t known.
If no consensus of the order of the strikes exists, the market will resolve based on assuming a strike time of 12 PM local time (on the listed strike date) for any strike without a published time.
If a tie still persists due to a shared time zone, the market will resolve according to the order they were announced in.
If publication timestamps are identical or cannot be reliably compared, the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the struck countries listed names.
The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
RSS and transient postings: RSS entries, cached snippets, archives, or temporary/removed webpages will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country that is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike.
In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied:
If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to have occurred on the reported date at 12:00 PM in the time zone in which the strike occurred.
In the case of multiple strikes being announced/reported to have occurred on the same date, with a lack of a precise time being reported for one or multiple of the strikes, a consensus of credible reporting establishing which strike occurred first may be used to resolve the market even if the precise times of the strike(s) aren’t known.
If no consensus of the order of the strikes exists, the market will resolve based on assuming a strike time of 12 PM local time (on the listed strike date) for any strike without a published time.
If a tie still persists due to a shared time zone, the market will resolve according to the order they were announced in.
If publication timestamps are identical or cannot be reliably compared, the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the struck countries listed names.
The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
RSS and transient postings: RSS entries, cached snippets, archives, or temporary/removed webpages will not alone qualify.
생성일: Jan 23, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
볼륨
$4,340,925종료일
Dec 31, 2026생성일
Jan 23, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...제안된 결과: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Somalia 100.0%
Yemen <1%
Cuba <1%
Venezuela <1%
$4,340,925 Vol.
$4,340,925 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Yemen
$217,348 Vol.
No
Cuba
$106,264 Vol.
No
Venezuela
$465,515 Vol.
No
Somalia
$883,692 Vol.
Yes
Iraq
$172,734 Vol.
No
Iran
$1,732,825 Vol.
No
Nigeria
$54,577 Vol.
No
Syria
$102,377 Vol.
No
Other
$101,010 Vol.
No
None before 2027
$218,684 Vol.
No
Mexico
$75,154 Vol.
No
Colombia
$210,746 Vol.
No
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Frequently Asked Questions
"Next Country US Strikes" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Somalia" at 100%, followed by "Yemen" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Next Country US Strikes" has generated $4.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Next Country US Strikes," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Next Country US Strikes" is "Somalia" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yemen" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Next Country US Strikes" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
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Frequently Asked Questions