Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 56.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the federal deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal projections showing tax cut extensions—like renewing the 2017 TCJA—adding $4-5 trillion to deficits over the decade per CBO baselines, outpacing anticipated tariff revenues and spending trims. FY2024's $1.8 trillion shortfall, fueled by surging interest payments on $36 trillion national debt, sets a high bar amid resilient economic growth boosting revenues but not enough to close gaps. Recent cabinet announcements prioritize efficiency via DOGE but lack binding cuts; key catalysts include the January debt ceiling deadline, February budget proposal, and Q1 economic data influencing policy feasibility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 56.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the federal deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal projections showing tax cut extensions—like renewing the 2017 TCJA—adding $4-5 trillion to deficits over the decade per CBO baselines, outpacing anticipated tariff revenues and spending trims. FY2024's $1.8 trillion shortfall, fueled by surging interest payments on $36 trillion national debt, sets a high bar amid resilient economic growth boosting revenues but not enough to close gaps. Recent cabinet announcements prioritize efficiency via DOGE but lack binding cuts; key catalysts include the January debt ceiling deadline, February budget proposal, and Q1 economic data influencing policy feasibility.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 56.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the federal deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal projections showing tax cut extensions—like renewing the 2017 TCJA—adding $4-5 trillion to deficits over the decade per CBO baselines, outpacing anticipated tariff revenues and spending trims. FY2024's $1.8 trillion shortfall, fueled by surging interest payments on $36 trillion national debt, sets a high bar amid resilient economic growth boosting revenues but not enough to close gaps. Recent cabinet announcements prioritize efficiency via DOGE but lack binding cuts; key catalysts include the January debt ceiling deadline, February budget proposal, and Q1 economic data influencing policy feasibility.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 56.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the federal deficit before 2027, driven by fiscal projections showing tax cut extensions—like renewing the 2017 TCJA—adding $4-5 trillion to deficits over the decade per CBO baselines, outpacing anticipated tariff revenues and spending trims. FY2024's $1.8 trillion shortfall, fueled by surging interest payments on $36 trillion national debt, sets a high bar amid resilient economic growth boosting revenues but not enough to close gaps. Recent cabinet announcements prioritize efficiency via DOGE but lack binding cuts; key catalysts include the January debt ceiling deadline, February budget proposal, and Q1 economic data influencing policy feasibility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問