OpenAI's steadfast prioritization of artificial intelligence model advancements, highlighted by the September 2024 release of its o1 reasoning model family, underpins the 74.5% market-implied probability favoring "No" for a social network launch in 2026. Traders reflect this consensus through real capital bets, citing no official announcements, leaks, or strategic pivots from CEO Sam Altman toward social platforms amid intensifying competition from Meta and X. Recent developments, including deepened Microsoft partnerships for compute infrastructure and Apple intelligence integrations, reinforce OpenAI's core focus on large language models and AI agents rather than consumer social features. Key catalysts to monitor include OpenAI's upcoming developer events or earnings commentary, where any deviation from the AGI roadmap could shift sentiment, though historical patterns suggest model releases over platform expansions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's steadfast prioritization of artificial intelligence model advancements, highlighted by the September 2024 release of its o1 reasoning model family, underpins the 74.5% market-implied probability favoring "No" for a social network launch in 2026. Traders reflect this consensus through real capital bets, citing no official announcements, leaks, or strategic pivots from CEO Sam Altman toward social platforms amid intensifying competition from Meta and X. Recent developments, including deepened Microsoft partnerships for compute infrastructure and Apple intelligence integrations, reinforce OpenAI's core focus on large language models and AI agents rather than consumer social features. Key catalysts to monitor include OpenAI's upcoming developer events or earnings commentary, where any deviation from the AGI roadmap could shift sentiment, though historical patterns suggest model releases over platform expansions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
音量
$4,935終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's steadfast prioritization of artificial intelligence model advancements, highlighted by the September 2024 release of its o1 reasoning model family, underpins the 74.5% market-implied probability favoring "No" for a social network launch in 2026. Traders reflect this consensus through real capital bets, citing no official announcements, leaks, or strategic pivots from CEO Sam Altman toward social platforms amid intensifying competition from Meta and X. Recent developments, including deepened Microsoft partnerships for compute infrastructure and Apple intelligence integrations, reinforce OpenAI's core focus on large language models and AI agents rather than consumer social features. Key catalysts to monitor include OpenAI's upcoming developer events or earnings commentary, where any deviation from the AGI roadmap could shift sentiment, though historical patterns suggest model releases over platform expansions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$4,935終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's steadfast prioritization of artificial intelligence model advancements, highlighted by the September 2024 release of its o1 reasoning model family, underpins the 74.5% market-implied probability favoring "No" for a social network launch in 2026. Traders reflect this consensus through real capital bets, citing no official announcements, leaks, or strategic pivots from CEO Sam Altman toward social platforms amid intensifying competition from Meta and X. Recent developments, including deepened Microsoft partnerships for compute infrastructure and Apple intelligence integrations, reinforce OpenAI's core focus on large language models and AI agents rather than consumer social features. Key catalysts to monitor include OpenAI's upcoming developer events or earnings commentary, where any deviation from the AGI roadmap could shift sentiment, though historical patterns suggest model releases over platform expansions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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