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政治·トランプ

FRB議長に任命されるのは誰ですか？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

FRB議長に任命されるのは誰ですか？

ケビン・ウォーシュ 94.5%

ジュディ・シェルトン 1.3%

ミシェル・ボウマン 1.3%

スティーブン・ミラン <1%

Polymarket

$32,264,755 Vol.

ケビン・ウォーシュ 94.5%

ジュディ・シェルトン 1.3%

ミシェル・ボウマン 1.3%

スティーブン・ミラン <1%

Polymarket

$32,264,755 Vol.

ケビン・ウォーシュ

$6,750,732 Vol.

95%

ジュディ・シェルトン

$13,701,871 Vol.

1%

ケビン・ハセット

$1,344,944 Vol.

<1%

クリストファー・ウォラー

$1,425,892 Vol.

<1%

ジェローム・パウエル

$1,233,173 Vol.

<1%

スティーブン・ミラン

$1,028,566 Vol.

1%

スコット・ベセント

$3,393,538 Vol.

<1%

リック・リーダー

$919,359 Vol.

1%

ミシェル・ボウマン

$2,469,450 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh holds commanding trader consensus at over 94% implied probability for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, driven by strong GOP Senate support and the Senate Banking Committee scheduling his confirmation hearing for April 21, just weeks before Jerome Powell's term ends on May 15. Recent momentum includes Warsh's asset disclosures exceeding $130 million with divestment pledges, alongside White House confidence and endorsements like Scott Bessent's prediction of approval amid procedural advances following earlier delays. Opposition from some Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis—tied to a DOJ probe into Powell—and Democrats persists, but traders view these as surmountable given Republican majorities. Powell has pledged to remain interim Chair if needed until 2028 as a governor, while low-probability shifts could arise from hearing surprises, economic shocks like energy price surges, or a withdrawn nomination.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$32,264,755
終了日
2026/10/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh holds commanding trader consensus at over 94% implied probability for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, driven by strong GOP Senate support and the Senate Banking Committee scheduling his confirmation hearing for April 21, just weeks before Jerome Powell's term ends on May 15. Recent momentum includes Warsh's asset disclosures exceeding $130 million with divestment pledges, alongside White House confidence and endorsements like Scott Bessent's prediction of approval amid procedural advances following earlier delays. Opposition from some Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis—tied to a DOJ probe into Powell—and Democrats persists, but traders view these as surmountable given Republican majorities. Powell has pledged to remain interim Chair if needed until 2028 as a governor, while low-probability shifts could arise from hearing surprises, economic shocks like energy price surges, or a withdrawn nomination.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$32,264,755
終了日
2026/10/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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よくある質問

「FRB議長に任命されるのは誰ですか？」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ケビン・ウォーシュ」で95%、次いで「ジュディ・シェルトン」が1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、95¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に95%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「FRB議長に任命されるのは誰ですか？」は$32.3 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 4, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「FRB議長に任命されるのは誰ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「FRB議長に任命されるのは誰ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「ケビン・ウォーシュ」で95%であり、市場がこの結果に95%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジュディ・シェルトン」で1%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「FRB議長に任命されるのは誰ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。