The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, initiating Operation Epic Fury targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and defense industries, with strikes continuing as recently as March 27 to degrade missile and drone production. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities and a strike on a U.S.-hosted base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, injuring at least a dozen American troops and prompting Pentagon deployment of 2,000 airborne soldiers to the region. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE host U.S. forces amid Iranian threats to energy infrastructure, while UK, France, and Germany have signaled potential defensive strikes if attacks persist. Traders weigh escalation risks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and coalition expansion before the April 30 resolution amid this multi-front conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$89,839 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
27%
UAE
22%
Kuwait
7%
Qatar
7%
Bahrain
7%
Any E.U. Country
6%
UK
6%
France
5%
Jordan
5%
Turkey
5%
Oman
4%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$89,839 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$43,278 Vol.
27%
UAE
$18,253 Vol.
22%
Kuwait
$1,128 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$341 Vol.
7%
Bahrain
$475 Vol.
7%
Any E.U. Country
$2,430 Vol.
6%
UK
$16,715 Vol.
6%
France
$3,769 Vol.
5%
Jordan
$892 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$298 Vol.
5%
Oman
$313 Vol.
4%
Germany
$1,949 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, initiating Operation Epic Fury targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and defense industries, with strikes continuing as recently as March 27 to degrade missile and drone production. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities and a strike on a U.S.-hosted base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, injuring at least a dozen American troops and prompting Pentagon deployment of 2,000 airborne soldiers to the region. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE host U.S. forces amid Iranian threats to energy infrastructure, while UK, France, and Germany have signaled potential defensive strikes if attacks persist. Traders weigh escalation risks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and coalition expansion before the April 30 resolution amid this multi-front conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
音量
$89,839終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, initiating Operation Epic Fury targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and defense industries, with strikes continuing as recently as March 27 to degrade missile and drone production. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities and a strike on a U.S.-hosted base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, injuring at least a dozen American troops and prompting Pentagon deployment of 2,000 airborne soldiers to the region. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE host U.S. forces amid Iranian threats to energy infrastructure, while UK, France, and Germany have signaled potential defensive strikes if attacks persist. Traders weigh escalation risks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and coalition expansion before the April 30 resolution amid this multi-front conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$89,839終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, initiating Operation Epic Fury targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and defense industries, with strikes continuing as recently as March 27 to degrade missile and drone production. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities and a strike on a U.S.-hosted base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, injuring at least a dozen American troops and prompting Pentagon deployment of 2,000 airborne soldiers to the region. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE host U.S. forces amid Iranian threats to energy infrastructure, while UK, France, and Germany have signaled potential defensive strikes if attacks persist. Traders weigh escalation risks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and coalition expansion before the April 30 resolution amid this multi-front conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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