Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the lmarena.ai Text Arena overall leaderboard (style control off), driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained high arena score just behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, which reclaimed the top spot after its late-March release. Anthropic's model has demonstrated robust performance across reasoning, coding, and creative benchmarks, maintaining a competitive edge amid rapid frontier advancements. Google's 6.5% odds reflect Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's recent gains and rumored April updates, while lower probabilities for OpenAI (2.5%), DeepSeek (2.4%), and others like Moonshot hinge on unconfirmed releases such as DeepSeek V4 or Kimi K3 potentially disrupting the top ranks before resolution. Watch for new model launches this month as key catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Anthropic 87%
Google 7%
OpenAI 2.5%
DeepSeek 1.7%
$25,180 Vol.
$25,180 Vol.
2026/04/30
Anthropic
87%
7%
OpenAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
1%
Meituan
1%
Mistral
1%
ByteDance
1%
Amazon
1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 7%
OpenAI 2.5%
DeepSeek 1.7%
$25,180 Vol.
$25,180 Vol.
2026/04/30
Anthropic
$3,779 Vol.
87%
$4,026 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$1,934 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$3,179 Vol.
2%
xAI
$1,366 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,219 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,407 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,617 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,190 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$1,917 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$1,173 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,209 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$1,165 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the lmarena.ai Text Arena overall leaderboard (style control off), driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained high arena score just behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, which reclaimed the top spot after its late-March release. Anthropic's model has demonstrated robust performance across reasoning, coding, and creative benchmarks, maintaining a competitive edge amid rapid frontier advancements. Google's 6.5% odds reflect Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's recent gains and rumored April updates, while lower probabilities for OpenAI (2.5%), DeepSeek (2.4%), and others like Moonshot hinge on unconfirmed releases such as DeepSeek V4 or Kimi K3 potentially disrupting the top ranks before resolution. Watch for new model launches this month as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
音量
$25,180終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the lmarena.ai Text Arena overall leaderboard (style control off), driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained high arena score just behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, which reclaimed the top spot after its late-March release. Anthropic's model has demonstrated robust performance across reasoning, coding, and creative benchmarks, maintaining a competitive edge amid rapid frontier advancements. Google's 6.5% odds reflect Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's recent gains and rumored April updates, while lower probabilities for OpenAI (2.5%), DeepSeek (2.4%), and others like Moonshot hinge on unconfirmed releases such as DeepSeek V4 or Kimi K3 potentially disrupting the top ranks before resolution. Watch for new model launches this month as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$25,180終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the lmarena.ai Text Arena overall leaderboard (style control off), driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained high arena score just behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, which reclaimed the top spot after its late-March release. Anthropic's model has demonstrated robust performance across reasoning, coding, and creative benchmarks, maintaining a competitive edge amid rapid frontier advancements. Google's 6.5% odds reflect Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's recent gains and rumored April updates, while lower probabilities for OpenAI (2.5%), DeepSeek (2.4%), and others like Moonshot hinge on unconfirmed releases such as DeepSeek V4 or Kimi K3 potentially disrupting the top ranks before resolution. Watch for new model launches this month as key catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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