Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for Claude experiencing outages on 12+ days in May, driven by a persistent pattern of disruptions highlighted by Anthropic's status page and Downdetector spikes. Elevated errors struck across Claude models on May 6, following user-reported downtimes on May 5 and continued issues into May 7, capping a string of April incidents including a 10-hour outage on April 6. Surging demand for Anthropic's large language models has strained inference infrastructure, prompting a planned ramp-up on xAI's Colossus supercomputer. Upcoming capacity expansions may reduce frequency, but traders anticipate ongoing instability through month-end resolution, with 9-11 days next at 28%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日12回以上 43%
9〜11 27%
3～5 14.2%
0-2 <1%
$13,142 Vol.
$13,142 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-2
1%
3～5
8%
6～8
30%
9〜11
26%
12回以上
43%
12回以上 43%
9〜11 27%
3～5 14.2%
0-2 <1%
$13,142 Vol.
$13,142 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-2
$7,788 Vol.
1%
3～5
$2,234 Vol.
8%
6～8
$660 Vol.
30%
9〜11
$621 Vol.
26%
12回以上
$1,839 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for Claude experiencing outages on 12+ days in May, driven by a persistent pattern of disruptions highlighted by Anthropic's status page and Downdetector spikes. Elevated errors struck across Claude models on May 6, following user-reported downtimes on May 5 and continued issues into May 7, capping a string of April incidents including a 10-hour outage on April 6. Surging demand for Anthropic's large language models has strained inference infrastructure, prompting a planned ramp-up on xAI's Colossus supercomputer. Upcoming capacity expansions may reduce frequency, but traders anticipate ongoing instability through month-end resolution, with 9-11 days next at 28%.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
音量
$13,142終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for Claude experiencing outages on 12+ days in May, driven by a persistent pattern of disruptions highlighted by Anthropic's status page and Downdetector spikes. Elevated errors struck across Claude models on May 6, following user-reported downtimes on May 5 and continued issues into May 7, capping a string of April incidents including a 10-hour outage on April 6. Surging demand for Anthropic's large language models has strained inference infrastructure, prompting a planned ramp-up on xAI's Colossus supercomputer. Upcoming capacity expansions may reduce frequency, but traders anticipate ongoing instability through month-end resolution, with 9-11 days next at 28%.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
音量
$13,142終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for Claude experiencing outages on 12+ days in May, driven by a persistent pattern of disruptions highlighted by Anthropic's status page and Downdetector spikes. Elevated errors struck across Claude models on May 6, following user-reported downtimes on May 5 and continued issues into May 7, capping a string of April incidents including a 10-hour outage on April 6. Surging demand for Anthropic's large language models has strained inference infrastructure, prompting a planned ramp-up on xAI's Colossus supercomputer. Upcoming capacity expansions may reduce frequency, but traders anticipate ongoing instability through month-end resolution, with 9-11 days next at 28%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問