Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record, reflecting NOAA and Copernicus data showing January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest such months in their records, with year-to-date anomalies trailing 2024 (warmest ever) and 2025 (second- or third-warmest). This positioning stems from lingering La Niña cooling influences early in the year amid the relentless anthropogenic warming trend, but NOAA forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June-August, potentially fueling record-challenging heat in the latter half. Historical analogs suggest top-four contention is likely, though inherent forecast uncertainty—driven by model divergences and remaining boreal summer conditions—leaves room for shifts; watch March global temperature reports and ongoing ENSO updates for near-term market movers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2 46%
1 29%
4 14%
3 8.9%
$2,404,698 Vol.
$2,404,698 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
29%
2
46%
3
9%
4
14%
5
1%
6位以下
3%
2 46%
1 29%
4 14%
3 8.9%
$2,404,698 Vol.
$2,404,698 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
$333,519 Vol.
29%
2
$244,619 Vol.
46%
3
$369,099 Vol.
9%
4
$361,190 Vol.
14%
5
$663,171 Vol.
1%
6位以下
$433,099 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record, reflecting NOAA and Copernicus data showing January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest such months in their records, with year-to-date anomalies trailing 2024 (warmest ever) and 2025 (second- or third-warmest). This positioning stems from lingering La Niña cooling influences early in the year amid the relentless anthropogenic warming trend, but NOAA forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June-August, potentially fueling record-challenging heat in the latter half. Historical analogs suggest top-four contention is likely, though inherent forecast uncertainty—driven by model divergences and remaining boreal summer conditions—leaves room for shifts; watch March global temperature reports and ongoing ENSO updates for near-term market movers.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$2,404,698終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record, reflecting NOAA and Copernicus data showing January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest such months in their records, with year-to-date anomalies trailing 2024 (warmest ever) and 2025 (second- or third-warmest). This positioning stems from lingering La Niña cooling influences early in the year amid the relentless anthropogenic warming trend, but NOAA forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June-August, potentially fueling record-challenging heat in the latter half. Historical analogs suggest top-four contention is likely, though inherent forecast uncertainty—driven by model divergences and remaining boreal summer conditions—leaves room for shifts; watch March global temperature reports and ongoing ENSO updates for near-term market movers.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,404,698終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record, reflecting NOAA and Copernicus data showing January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest such months in their records, with year-to-date anomalies trailing 2024 (warmest ever) and 2025 (second- or third-warmest). This positioning stems from lingering La Niña cooling influences early in the year amid the relentless anthropogenic warming trend, but NOAA forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June-August, potentially fueling record-challenging heat in the latter half. Historical analogs suggest top-four contention is likely, though inherent forecast uncertainty—driven by model divergences and remaining boreal summer conditions—leaves room for shifts; watch March global temperature reports and ongoing ENSO updates for near-term market movers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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