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What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

Market icon

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

$320,821 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$320,821 Vol.

Polymarket

EV tax credit cuts

$12,755 Vol.

Yes

End Tax on Tips

$40,108 Vol.

Yes

Reduce tax on Social Security

$234,865 Vol.

No

Debt Ceiling lifted/abolished

$14,254 Vol.

Yes

Extension of income tax cut for High Earners

$7,193 Vol.

Yes

SALT cap increase

$11,647 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles.

This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
音量
$320,821
終了日
Dec 31, 2025
マーケット開始日
May 14, 2025, 12:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

提案された結果: Yes

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「What will be in the next reconciliation bill?」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「EV tax credit cuts」で100%、次いで「End Tax on Tips」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「What will be in the next reconciliation bill?」は$320.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています(May 14, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「What will be in the next reconciliation bill?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「What will be in the next reconciliation bill?」の現在のフロントランナーは「EV tax credit cuts」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「End Tax on Tips」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「What will be in the next reconciliation bill?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。