Market icon

ウェールズ議会選挙の勝者

Market icon

ウェールズ議会選挙の勝者

プライド・カムリ 81%

リフォームUK 15%

ウェールズ労働党 3.8%

ウェールズ保守党 <1%

Polymarket

$18,987 Vol.

プライド・カムリ 81%

リフォームUK 15%

ウェールズ労働党 3.8%

ウェールズ保守党 <1%

Polymarket

$18,987 Vol.

ウェールズ労働党

$3,326 Vol.

4%

プライド・カムリ

$5,740 Vol.

81%

ウェールズ保守党

$2,492 Vol.

<1%

リフォームUK

$3,859 Vol.

15%

ウェールズ自由民主党

$1,865 Vol.

<1%

ウェールズ緑の党

$1,706 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru leads trader consensus at 80.5% to win the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election, likely due for 2026 under the mixed-member proportional representation system requiring a plurality of seats or coalition to form government. Recent Welsh Labour turmoil—including former First Minister Vaughan Gething's July no-confidence loss and resignation amid donor scandals—has eroded incumbency advantages, with new leader Eluned Morgan facing low approval and internal divisions. Plaid Cymru has capitalized on nationalist sentiment and policy contrasts on devolution and economy, while Reform UK's 15% reflects national populist gains but limited Welsh organization. Labour trails at 4.5% despite historical dominance, diverging from polls showing them narrowly ahead; upcoming local elections and budget votes could shift dynamics before resolution.

Plaid Cymru leads trader consensus at 80.5% to win the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election, likely due for 2026 under the mixed-member proportional representation system requiring a plurality of seats or coalition to form government. Recent Welsh Labour turmoil—including former First Minister Vaughan Gething's July no-confidence loss and resignation amid donor scandals—has eroded incumbency advantages, with new leader Eluned Morgan facing low approval and internal divisions. Plaid Cymru has capitalized on nationalist sentiment and policy contrasts on devolution and economy, while Reform UK's 15% reflects national populist gains but limited Welsh organization. Labour trails at 4.5% despite historical dominance, diverging from polls showing them narrowly ahead; upcoming local elections and budget votes could shift dynamics before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru leads trader consensus at 80.5% to win the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election, likely due for 2026 under the mixed-member proportional representation system requiring a plurality of seats or coalition to form government. Recent Welsh Labour turmoil—including former First Minister Vaughan Gething's July no-confidence loss and resignation amid donor scandals—has eroded incumbency advantages, with new leader Eluned Morgan facing low approval and internal divisions. Plaid Cymru has capitalized on nationalist sentiment and policy contrasts on devolution and economy, while Reform UK's 15% reflects national populist gains but limited Welsh organization. Labour trails at 4.5% despite historical dominance, diverging from polls showing them narrowly ahead; upcoming local elections and budget votes could shift dynamics before resolution.

Plaid Cymru leads trader consensus at 80.5% to win the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election, likely due for 2026 under the mixed-member proportional representation system requiring a plurality of seats or coalition to form government. Recent Welsh Labour turmoil—including former First Minister Vaughan Gething's July no-confidence loss and resignation amid donor scandals—has eroded incumbency advantages, with new leader Eluned Morgan facing low approval and internal divisions. Plaid Cymru has capitalized on nationalist sentiment and policy contrasts on devolution and economy, while Reform UK's 15% reflects national populist gains but limited Welsh organization. Labour trails at 4.5% despite historical dominance, diverging from polls showing them narrowly ahead; upcoming local elections and budget votes could shift dynamics before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ウェールズ議会選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「プライド・カムリ」で81%、次いで「リフォームUK」が15%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、81¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に81%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ウェールズ議会選挙の勝者」は$19Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 12, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ウェールズ議会選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ウェールズ議会選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「プライド・カムリ」で81%であり、市場がこの結果に81%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「リフォームUK」で15%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ウェールズ議会選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。