US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on stalled diplomacy amid ongoing military escalations in the Middle East conflict. Over the past week, the US transmitted a 15-point plan to end hostilities, promptly rejected by Iran, which countered with its own demands while launching attacks on Israel and Gulf states; Iran's foreign minister denied active negotiations. President Trump extended a US pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, amid Israeli vows to intensify operations despite ceasefire appeals. Potential talks hosted by Pakistan loom as a near-term catalyst, but persistent airstrikes and sovereignty disputes over the Strait of Hormuz sustain trader skepticism on swift de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$61,881,934 Vol.
3月31日
2%
4月7日
10%
4月15日
17%
4月30日
32%
5月31日
48%
6月30日
61%
12月31日
74%
$61,881,934 Vol.
3月31日
$39,039,823 Vol.
2%
4月7日
$1,465,309 Vol.
10%
4月15日
$6,020,692 Vol.
17%
4月30日
$6,704,120 Vol.
32%
5月31日
$2,271,796 Vol.
48%
6月30日
$2,353,725 Vol.
61%
12月31日
$532,810 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on stalled diplomacy amid ongoing military escalations in the Middle East conflict. Over the past week, the US transmitted a 15-point plan to end hostilities, promptly rejected by Iran, which countered with its own demands while launching attacks on Israel and Gulf states; Iran's foreign minister denied active negotiations. President Trump extended a US pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, amid Israeli vows to intensify operations despite ceasefire appeals. Potential talks hosted by Pakistan loom as a near-term catalyst, but persistent airstrikes and sovereignty disputes over the Strait of Hormuz sustain trader skepticism on swift de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
音量
$61,881,934マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on stalled diplomacy amid ongoing military escalations in the Middle East conflict. Over the past week, the US transmitted a 15-point plan to end hostilities, promptly rejected by Iran, which countered with its own demands while launching attacks on Israel and Gulf states; Iran's foreign minister denied active negotiations. President Trump extended a US pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, amid Israeli vows to intensify operations despite ceasefire appeals. Potential talks hosted by Pakistan loom as a near-term catalyst, but persistent airstrikes and sovereignty disputes over the Strait of Hormuz sustain trader skepticism on swift de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$61,881,934マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on stalled diplomacy amid ongoing military escalations in the Middle East conflict. Over the past week, the US transmitted a 15-point plan to end hostilities, promptly rejected by Iran, which countered with its own demands while launching attacks on Israel and Gulf states; Iran's foreign minister denied active negotiations. President Trump extended a US pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, amid Israeli vows to intensify operations despite ceasefire appeals. Potential talks hosted by Pakistan loom as a near-term catalyst, but persistent airstrikes and sovereignty disputes over the Strait of Hormuz sustain trader skepticism on swift de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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