Ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including missile sites in Isfahan reported April 2, have intensified tensions despite diplomatic overtures, anchoring trader skepticism toward a near-term US-Iran ceasefire. Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point plan transmitted via Pakistan on March 24 as unrealistic, issuing a counterproposal while denying requests for talks; President Trump claimed Iranian outreach yesterday, promptly contradicted by Tehran's foreign ministry. Pakistan offered to host negotiations March 29, with new mediators emerging, but persistent retaliatory strikes—like Iran's missile hitting central Israel—and Iran's vows to repel attacks signal deadlock. Upcoming mediation sessions could shift dynamics, though military escalation remains the dominant force.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$83,083,860 Vol.
4月7日
2%
4月15日
9%
4月30日
24%
5月31日
46%
6月30日
57%
12月31日
71%
$83,083,860 Vol.
4月7日
$7,154,026 Vol.
2%
4月15日
$11,526,472 Vol.
9%
4月30日
$9,542,948 Vol.
24%
5月31日
$3,218,000 Vol.
46%
6月30日
$2,851,166 Vol.
57%
12月31日
$922,362 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including missile sites in Isfahan reported April 2, have intensified tensions despite diplomatic overtures, anchoring trader skepticism toward a near-term US-Iran ceasefire. Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point plan transmitted via Pakistan on March 24 as unrealistic, issuing a counterproposal while denying requests for talks; President Trump claimed Iranian outreach yesterday, promptly contradicted by Tehran's foreign ministry. Pakistan offered to host negotiations March 29, with new mediators emerging, but persistent retaliatory strikes—like Iran's missile hitting central Israel—and Iran's vows to repel attacks signal deadlock. Upcoming mediation sessions could shift dynamics, though military escalation remains the dominant force.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
音量
$83,083,860マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including missile sites in Isfahan reported April 2, have intensified tensions despite diplomatic overtures, anchoring trader skepticism toward a near-term US-Iran ceasefire. Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point plan transmitted via Pakistan on March 24 as unrealistic, issuing a counterproposal while denying requests for talks; President Trump claimed Iranian outreach yesterday, promptly contradicted by Tehran's foreign ministry. Pakistan offered to host negotiations March 29, with new mediators emerging, but persistent retaliatory strikes—like Iran's missile hitting central Israel—and Iran's vows to repel attacks signal deadlock. Upcoming mediation sessions could shift dynamics, though military escalation remains the dominant force.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$83,083,860マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including missile sites in Isfahan reported April 2, have intensified tensions despite diplomatic overtures, anchoring trader skepticism toward a near-term US-Iran ceasefire. Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point plan transmitted via Pakistan on March 24 as unrealistic, issuing a counterproposal while denying requests for talks; President Trump claimed Iranian outreach yesterday, promptly contradicted by Tehran's foreign ministry. Pakistan offered to host negotiations March 29, with new mediators emerging, but persistent retaliatory strikes—like Iran's missile hitting central Israel—and Iran's vows to repel attacks signal deadlock. Upcoming mediation sessions could shift dynamics, though military escalation remains the dominant force.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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