Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$83,670,568 Vol.
4月7日
2%
4月15日
7%
4月30日
22%
5月31日
41%
6月30日
56%
12月31日
71%
$83,670,568 Vol.
4月7日
$7,268,408 Vol.
2%
4月15日
$11,688,707 Vol.
7%
4月30日
$9,724,753 Vol.
22%
5月31日
$3,285,209 Vol.
41%
6月30日
$2,884,223 Vol.
56%
12月31日
$951,943 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
音量
$83,670,568マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$83,670,568マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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