Trader consensus on a US military strike—defined as drones, missiles, or aerial bombs physically impacting Colombian soil—remains low following early 2026 threats after the January 3 US raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump's rhetoric targeted Colombian cartels amid tensions with President Gustavo Petro over counternarcotics cooperation, prompting Petro's warnings of invasion risks and Colombian military preparations. De-escalation via a January phone call and February White House meeting shifted focus to joint efforts, but US-backed Ecuadorian strikes near the border under "Operation Total Extermination" in March, plus ongoing US maritime actions killing Colombian nationals on drug vessels, sustain uncertainty. Colombia's May presidential elections could alter dynamics with a potentially more aligned government.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,498,511 Vol.
2026/01/31
12月31日
20%
$1,498,511 Vol.
12月31日
$421,296 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on a US military strike—defined as drones, missiles, or aerial bombs physically impacting Colombian soil—remains low following early 2026 threats after the January 3 US raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump's rhetoric targeted Colombian cartels amid tensions with President Gustavo Petro over counternarcotics cooperation, prompting Petro's warnings of invasion risks and Colombian military preparations. De-escalation via a January phone call and February White House meeting shifted focus to joint efforts, but US-backed Ecuadorian strikes near the border under "Operation Total Extermination" in March, plus ongoing US maritime actions killing Colombian nationals on drug vessels, sustain uncertainty. Colombia's May presidential elections could alter dynamics with a potentially more aligned government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
音量
$1,498,511終了日
2026/01/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on a US military strike—defined as drones, missiles, or aerial bombs physically impacting Colombian soil—remains low following early 2026 threats after the January 3 US raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump's rhetoric targeted Colombian cartels amid tensions with President Gustavo Petro over counternarcotics cooperation, prompting Petro's warnings of invasion risks and Colombian military preparations. De-escalation via a January phone call and February White House meeting shifted focus to joint efforts, but US-backed Ecuadorian strikes near the border under "Operation Total Extermination" in March, plus ongoing US maritime actions killing Colombian nationals on drug vessels, sustain uncertainty. Colombia's May presidential elections could alter dynamics with a potentially more aligned government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$1,498,511終了日
2026/01/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on a US military strike—defined as drones, missiles, or aerial bombs physically impacting Colombian soil—remains low following early 2026 threats after the January 3 US raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump's rhetoric targeted Colombian cartels amid tensions with President Gustavo Petro over counternarcotics cooperation, prompting Petro's warnings of invasion risks and Colombian military preparations. De-escalation via a January phone call and February White House meeting shifted focus to joint efforts, but US-backed Ecuadorian strikes near the border under "Operation Total Extermination" in March, plus ongoing US maritime actions killing Colombian nationals on drug vessels, sustain uncertainty. Colombia's May presidential elections could alter dynamics with a potentially more aligned government.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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