Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro over narcotrafficking escalated in early January 2026 after a US special forces operation captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, prompting Trump to publicly suggest a similar military action in Colombia to combat cocaine production. Petro warned of a "real threat" of US strikes, but subsequent White House invitations and a February bilateral vow to jointly target narco bosses led to de-escalation, with Colombian forces conducting anti-guerrilla strikes. No US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Colombian soil has occurred, though March accusations by Petro of Ecuadorian bombings spilling over from the border—linked to a US-Ecuador special forces agreement—highlight sovereignty risks amid ongoing maritime US interdictions of drug vessels in the Pacific and Caribbean. Traders monitor potential escalations in anti-cartel diplomacy or DEA actions against Colombian figures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,486,400 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
3月31日
<1%
12月31日
22%
$1,486,400 Vol.
3月31日
$400,193 Vol.
<1%
12月31日
$417,868 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro over narcotrafficking escalated in early January 2026 after a US special forces operation captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, prompting Trump to publicly suggest a similar military action in Colombia to combat cocaine production. Petro warned of a "real threat" of US strikes, but subsequent White House invitations and a February bilateral vow to jointly target narco bosses led to de-escalation, with Colombian forces conducting anti-guerrilla strikes. No US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Colombian soil has occurred, though March accusations by Petro of Ecuadorian bombings spilling over from the border—linked to a US-Ecuador special forces agreement—highlight sovereignty risks amid ongoing maritime US interdictions of drug vessels in the Pacific and Caribbean. Traders monitor potential escalations in anti-cartel diplomacy or DEA actions against Colombian figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
音量
$1,486,400終了日
Jan 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro over narcotrafficking escalated in early January 2026 after a US special forces operation captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, prompting Trump to publicly suggest a similar military action in Colombia to combat cocaine production. Petro warned of a "real threat" of US strikes, but subsequent White House invitations and a February bilateral vow to jointly target narco bosses led to de-escalation, with Colombian forces conducting anti-guerrilla strikes. No US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Colombian soil has occurred, though March accusations by Petro of Ecuadorian bombings spilling over from the border—linked to a US-Ecuador special forces agreement—highlight sovereignty risks amid ongoing maritime US interdictions of drug vessels in the Pacific and Caribbean. Traders monitor potential escalations in anti-cartel diplomacy or DEA actions against Colombian figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$1,486,400終了日
Jan 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro over narcotrafficking escalated in early January 2026 after a US special forces operation captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, prompting Trump to publicly suggest a similar military action in Colombia to combat cocaine production. Petro warned of a "real threat" of US strikes, but subsequent White House invitations and a February bilateral vow to jointly target narco bosses led to de-escalation, with Colombian forces conducting anti-guerrilla strikes. No US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Colombian soil has occurred, though March accusations by Petro of Ecuadorian bombings spilling over from the border—linked to a US-Ecuador special forces agreement—highlight sovereignty risks amid ongoing maritime US interdictions of drug vessels in the Pacific and Caribbean. Traders monitor potential escalations in anti-cartel diplomacy or DEA actions against Colombian figures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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