Recent polling averages, including Silver Bulletin's first sub-40% reading in Trump's second term as of April 4, have anchored trader consensus near 39%, with the 39.0–39.4 and 39.5–39.9 bins tightly matched at 36% and 33% implied probabilities. This narrow contest reflects volatile recent surveys—RCP at 40.9% approve versus Economist's 36%—amid backlash to the Iran war escalation, gas prices exceeding $4/gallon, rising mortgage rates, and inflation concerns eroding support among Latino voters and young men. Divergence could arise from diplomatic de-escalation signals, upcoming economic data like jobs reports, or shifts in immigration policy following DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March dismissal after enforcement incidents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日39.0–39.4 37%
39.5–39.9 35%
38.5–38.9 12%
40.0–40.4 12%
新規
新規
2026/04/11
<38.5
10%
38.5–38.9
12%
39.0–39.4
37%
39.5–39.9
35%
40.0–40.4
12%
40.5+
3%
39.0–39.4 37%
39.5–39.9 35%
38.5–38.9 12%
40.0–40.4 12%
新規
新規
2026/04/11
<38.5
$1,210 Vol.
10%
38.5–38.9
$524 Vol.
12%
39.0–39.4
$417 Vol.
37%
39.5–39.9
$510 Vol.
35%
40.0–40.4
$543 Vol.
12%
40.5+
$1,151 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling averages, including Silver Bulletin's first sub-40% reading in Trump's second term as of April 4, have anchored trader consensus near 39%, with the 39.0–39.4 and 39.5–39.9 bins tightly matched at 36% and 33% implied probabilities. This narrow contest reflects volatile recent surveys—RCP at 40.9% approve versus Economist's 36%—amid backlash to the Iran war escalation, gas prices exceeding $4/gallon, rising mortgage rates, and inflation concerns eroding support among Latino voters and young men. Divergence could arise from diplomatic de-escalation signals, upcoming economic data like jobs reports, or shifts in immigration policy following DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March dismissal after enforcement incidents.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
音量
$4,356終了日
2026/04/11マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling averages, including Silver Bulletin's first sub-40% reading in Trump's second term as of April 4, have anchored trader consensus near 39%, with the 39.0–39.4 and 39.5–39.9 bins tightly matched at 36% and 33% implied probabilities. This narrow contest reflects volatile recent surveys—RCP at 40.9% approve versus Economist's 36%—amid backlash to the Iran war escalation, gas prices exceeding $4/gallon, rising mortgage rates, and inflation concerns eroding support among Latino voters and young men. Divergence could arise from diplomatic de-escalation signals, upcoming economic data like jobs reports, or shifts in immigration policy following DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March dismissal after enforcement incidents.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$4,356終了日
2026/04/11マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages, including Silver Bulletin's first sub-40% reading in Trump's second term as of April 4, have anchored trader consensus near 39%, with the 39.0–39.4 and 39.5–39.9 bins tightly matched at 36% and 33% implied probabilities. This narrow contest reflects volatile recent surveys—RCP at 40.9% approve versus Economist's 36%—amid backlash to the Iran war escalation, gas prices exceeding $4/gallon, rising mortgage rates, and inflation concerns eroding support among Latino voters and young men. Divergence could arise from diplomatic de-escalation signals, upcoming economic data like jobs reports, or shifts in immigration policy following DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March dismissal after enforcement incidents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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