U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?
$28,620 Vol.
$28,620 Vol.
Nov 5, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the second-place candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could reach 270 Electoral College votes with an additional 10,000 votes, distributed optimally across any number of relevant jurisdictions (U.S. States, electoral districts, D.C). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote.
Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules.
For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.
If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the second-place candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could reach 270 Electoral College votes with an additional 10,000 votes, distributed optimally across any number of relevant jurisdictions (U.S. States, electoral districts, D.C). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote.
Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules.
For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.
If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote.
Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules.
For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.
If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
作成日： Nov 1, 2024, 7:55 PM ET
音量
$28,620終了日
Nov 5, 2024作成日時
Nov 1, 2024, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?
$28,620 Vol.
$28,620 Vol.
Nov 5, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the second-place candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could reach 270 Electoral College votes with an additional 10,000 votes, distributed optimally across any number of relevant jurisdictions (U.S. States, electoral districts, D.C). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote.
Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules.
For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.
If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the second-place candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could reach 270 Electoral College votes with an additional 10,000 votes, distributed optimally across any number of relevant jurisdictions (U.S. States, electoral districts, D.C). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote.
Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules.
For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.
If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote.
Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules.
For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.
If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$28,620終了日
Nov 5, 2024作成日時
Nov 1, 2024, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
Frequently Asked Questions
"U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?" has generated $28.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 1, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current probability for "U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.
The resolution rules for "U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
Frequently Asked Questions