Polymarket traders' consensus prices Q1 2026 US real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% at 27.5% implied probability narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% at 26.3%, reflecting mixed late-March data flows. Downward revisions in key nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 2.0% on March 23 and New York Fed Staff Nowcast to 2.1% on March 27—stem primarily from February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rise to 4.4%, offsetting resilient ISM Services expansion at 56.1. Competitive dynamics hinge on potential upward BEA revisions, consumer spending momentum, and inventory adjustments, with the advance estimate due around April 30 amid upcoming March CPI on April 10.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2.5～3.0％ 26.3%
2.0～2.5％ 24.5%
3.0～3.5％ 19%
3.5％以上 13%
$229,766 Vol.
$229,766 Vol.
2026/04/30
1.0％未満
8%
1.0〜1.5％
10%
1.5〜2.0％
8%
2.0～2.5％
17%
2.5～3.0％
26%
3.0～3.5％
19%
3.5％以上
13%
2.5～3.0％ 26.3%
2.0～2.5％ 24.5%
3.0～3.5％ 19%
3.5％以上 13%
$229,766 Vol.
$229,766 Vol.
2026/04/30
1.0％未満
$21,636 Vol.
8%
1.0〜1.5％
$5,024 Vol.
10%
1.5〜2.0％
$14,617 Vol.
8%
2.0～2.5％
$31,552 Vol.
17%
2.5～3.0％
$13,754 Vol.
26%
3.0～3.5％
$73,946 Vol.
19%
3.5％以上
$69,236 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders' consensus prices Q1 2026 US real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% at 27.5% implied probability narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% at 26.3%, reflecting mixed late-March data flows. Downward revisions in key nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 2.0% on March 23 and New York Fed Staff Nowcast to 2.1% on March 27—stem primarily from February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rise to 4.4%, offsetting resilient ISM Services expansion at 56.1. Competitive dynamics hinge on potential upward BEA revisions, consumer spending momentum, and inventory adjustments, with the advance estimate due around April 30 amid upcoming March CPI on April 10.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
音量
$229,766終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders' consensus prices Q1 2026 US real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% at 27.5% implied probability narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% at 26.3%, reflecting mixed late-March data flows. Downward revisions in key nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 2.0% on March 23 and New York Fed Staff Nowcast to 2.1% on March 27—stem primarily from February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rise to 4.4%, offsetting resilient ISM Services expansion at 56.1. Competitive dynamics hinge on potential upward BEA revisions, consumer spending momentum, and inventory adjustments, with the advance estimate due around April 30 amid upcoming March CPI on April 10.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
音量
$229,766終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus prices Q1 2026 US real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% at 27.5% implied probability narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% at 26.3%, reflecting mixed late-March data flows. Downward revisions in key nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 2.0% on March 23 and New York Fed Staff Nowcast to 2.1% on March 27—stem primarily from February's unexpected -92,000 nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rise to 4.4%, offsetting resilient ISM Services expansion at 56.1. Competitive dynamics hinge on potential upward BEA revisions, consumer spending momentum, and inventory adjustments, with the advance estimate due around April 30 amid upcoming March CPI on April 10.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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