Polymarket traders price a modest rebound in the March 2026 nonfarm payrolls at 30.5% implied odds for 100,000+ jobs added, narrowly ahead of 50,000–100,000 (22.5%) and 0–50,000 (22.0%), reflecting uncertainty after February's actual -92,000 print crushed the 50,000 consensus amid heavy prior revisions that dragged the three-month average to just 6,000. Tepid ADP private payrolls averaging 10,000 weekly through early March and steady initial jobless claims around 210,000 underscore cooling labor momentum, aligning with economist forecasts of 48,000–60,000. The closely contested odds hinge on hiring surprises in key sectors like health care; resolution via Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release could pivot rate cut expectations if below breakeven levels near 100,000.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日10万件以上 31%
5万～10万 23%
0 ～ 50k 22%
-5万〜0 12%
$17,145 Vol.
$17,145 Vol.
<-15万人
3%
-15万～-10万
4%
-10万～-5万
2%
-5万〜0
12%
0 ～ 50k
22%
5万～10万
23%
10万件以上
31%
10万件以上 31%
5万～10万 23%
0 ～ 50k 22%
-5万〜0 12%
$17,145 Vol.
$17,145 Vol.
<-15万人
3%
-15万～-10万
4%
-10万～-5万
2%
-5万〜0
12%
0 ～ 50k
22%
5万～10万
23%
10万件以上
31%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a modest rebound in the March 2026 nonfarm payrolls at 30.5% implied odds for 100,000+ jobs added, narrowly ahead of 50,000–100,000 (22.5%) and 0–50,000 (22.0%), reflecting uncertainty after February's actual -92,000 print crushed the 50,000 consensus amid heavy prior revisions that dragged the three-month average to just 6,000. Tepid ADP private payrolls averaging 10,000 weekly through early March and steady initial jobless claims around 210,000 underscore cooling labor momentum, aligning with economist forecasts of 48,000–60,000. The closely contested odds hinge on hiring surprises in key sectors like health care; resolution via Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release could pivot rate cut expectations if below breakeven levels near 100,000.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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