Recent polls, including a Senate Majority PAC survey from late March showing Texas AG Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by single digits and an earlier Impact Research poll with Paxton up 53%-37%, have solidified trader consensus around Paxton's 9%+ margin victory at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. Paxton's edge stems from consolidating support from third-place finisher Rep. Wesley Hunt's voters in the fragmented March 3 primary, where neither candidate cleared 50%, bolstering his appeal among conservative primary turnout. Cornyn counters with incumbency, superior fundraising after heavy primary spending, and fresh Republican endorsements, though a pending Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard that could consolidate establishment or base support and tip the closely contested margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Paxton 9%+ 29.9%
Cornyn <3% 12.7%
Paxton 6–9% 13%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
$42,875 Vol.
$42,875 Vol.
2026/05/25
Paxton 9%+
30%
Paxton 6–9%
13%
Paxton 3–6%
12%
Paxton <3%
12%
Cornyn <3%
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
8%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
13%
Paxton 9%+ 29.9%
Cornyn <3% 12.7%
Paxton 6–9% 13%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
$42,875 Vol.
$42,875 Vol.
2026/05/25
Paxton 9%+
$8,606 Vol.
30%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,877 Vol.
13%
Paxton 3–6%
$3,839 Vol.
12%
Paxton <3%
$5,829 Vol.
12%
Cornyn <3%
$3,512 Vol.
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,042 Vol.
8%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,566 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$7,604 Vol.
13%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a Senate Majority PAC survey from late March showing Texas AG Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by single digits and an earlier Impact Research poll with Paxton up 53%-37%, have solidified trader consensus around Paxton's 9%+ margin victory at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. Paxton's edge stems from consolidating support from third-place finisher Rep. Wesley Hunt's voters in the fragmented March 3 primary, where neither candidate cleared 50%, bolstering his appeal among conservative primary turnout. Cornyn counters with incumbency, superior fundraising after heavy primary spending, and fresh Republican endorsements, though a pending Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard that could consolidate establishment or base support and tip the closely contested margin.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
音量
$42,875終了日
2026/05/25マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a Senate Majority PAC survey from late March showing Texas AG Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by single digits and an earlier Impact Research poll with Paxton up 53%-37%, have solidified trader consensus around Paxton's 9%+ margin victory at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. Paxton's edge stems from consolidating support from third-place finisher Rep. Wesley Hunt's voters in the fragmented March 3 primary, where neither candidate cleared 50%, bolstering his appeal among conservative primary turnout. Cornyn counters with incumbency, superior fundraising after heavy primary spending, and fresh Republican endorsements, though a pending Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard that could consolidate establishment or base support and tip the closely contested margin.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$42,875終了日
2026/05/25マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a Senate Majority PAC survey from late March showing Texas AG Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by single digits and an earlier Impact Research poll with Paxton up 53%-37%, have solidified trader consensus around Paxton's 9%+ margin victory at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. Paxton's edge stems from consolidating support from third-place finisher Rep. Wesley Hunt's voters in the fragmented March 3 primary, where neither candidate cleared 50%, bolstering his appeal among conservative primary turnout. Cornyn counters with incumbency, superior fundraising after heavy primary spending, and fresh Republican endorsements, though a pending Trump endorsement remains a pivotal wildcard that could consolidate establishment or base support and tip the closely contested margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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