Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat at 66% implied probability to win the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 25, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $500,000 raised, and endorsements from key labor unions and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier holds 27.5% amid grassroots progressive support from groups like the Democratic Socialists of America and recent door-to-door campaigning in Washington Heights, but trails in recent polls showing Espaillat ahead 52-28%. Minor candidates like Oscar Romero linger at low odds due to limited visibility and resources. Recent polls from Data for Progress and voter outreach efforts underscore Espaillat's edge in this heavily Latino district, though high early voting turnout could influence the closely watched race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日アドリアーノ・エスパイラット 66%
ダリアリザ・アビラ・シュヴァリエ 28%
オスカー・ロメロ 4.8%
ジェームズ・フェルトン・キース 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 23, 2026
アドリアーノ・エスパイラット
66%
ダリアリザ・アビラ・シュヴァリエ
28%
オスカー・ロメロ
5%
ジェームズ・フェルトン・キース
2%
テオ・チノ＝タヴァレス
1%
メーガン・ロドリゲス
1%
ジャリール・アマドール
1%
マット・ミラー
<1%
アドリアーノ・エスパイラット 66%
ダリアリザ・アビラ・シュヴァリエ 28%
オスカー・ロメロ 4.8%
ジェームズ・フェルトン・キース 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 23, 2026
アドリアーノ・エスパイラット
$1,115 Vol.
66%
ダリアリザ・アビラ・シュヴァリエ
$1,015 Vol.
28%
オスカー・ロメロ
$2,559 Vol.
5%
ジェームズ・フェルトン・キース
$590 Vol.
2%
テオ・チノ＝タヴァレス
$544 Vol.
1%
メーガン・ロドリゲス
$723 Vol.
1%
ジャリール・アマドール
$521 Vol.
1%
マット・ミラー
$951 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET
音量
$8,018終了日
Jun 23, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$8,018終了日
Jun 23, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat at 66% implied probability to win the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 25, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $500,000 raised, and endorsements from key labor unions and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier holds 27.5% amid grassroots progressive support from groups like the Democratic Socialists of America and recent door-to-door campaigning in Washington Heights, but trails in recent polls showing Espaillat ahead 52-28%. Minor candidates like Oscar Romero linger at low odds due to limited visibility and resources. Recent polls from Data for Progress and voter outreach efforts underscore Espaillat's edge in this heavily Latino district, though high early voting turnout could influence the closely watched race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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