Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 72.5% probability for TSA passenger throughput falling in the 2.6M-2.8M range on March 29, 2026, reflecting robust spring break demand tempered by acute TSA staffing shortages from the ongoing DHS funding shutdown now in its 40th day. Recent daily screenings hovered around this band, with 2.72 million on March 26 and a seven-day moving average of 2.59 million, up 0.6% year-over-year despite 450+ officer resignations and 40-50% absenteeism at major hubs causing record four-hour-plus wait times. Airlines anticipate record 171 million spring passengers, but capacity constraints cap volumes short of 2.8M-3.0M (24% implied odds), with resolution expected via TSA's March 30 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2.6M-2.8M 75%
2.8M-3.0M 36%
<2.6M 4.0%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$15,632 Vol.
$15,632 Vol.
<2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
74%
2.8M-3.0M
22%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
2.6M-2.8M 75%
2.8M-3.0M 36%
<2.6M 4.0%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$15,632 Vol.
$15,632 Vol.
<2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
74%
2.8M-3.0M
22%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日: Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 72.5% probability for TSA passenger throughput falling in the 2.6M-2.8M range on March 29, 2026, reflecting robust spring break demand tempered by acute TSA staffing shortages from the ongoing DHS funding shutdown now in its 40th day. Recent daily screenings hovered around this band, with 2.72 million on March 26 and a seven-day moving average of 2.59 million, up 0.6% year-over-year despite 450+ officer resignations and 40-50% absenteeism at major hubs causing record four-hour-plus wait times. Airlines anticipate record 171 million spring passengers, but capacity constraints cap volumes short of 2.8M-3.0M (24% implied odds), with resolution expected via TSA's March 30 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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