Recent political developments have kept major triggering events at bay, sustaining trader consensus around an 80% implied probability for no resolution to “Something” in the May market. Routine elections in the United Kingdom, Scotland, Wales, and the Bahamas occurred without spillover into broader instability, while Latvia’s prime ministerial resignation and Russia’s Victory Day parade remained contained. No ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, Federal Reserve rate cut, or military escalation involving Israel, the United States, and Iran has materialized through late May. Upcoming Colombian presidential voting and scheduled summits have not yet produced outcomes that would shift probabilities. This stability reflects the absence of the specific catalysts outlined in the market rules, allowing the current pricing to reflect ongoing quietude in those high-impact areas.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日何もない
$103,471 Vol.
$103,471 Vol.
何もない
$103,471 Vol.
$103,471 Vol.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
マーケット開始日: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent political developments have kept major triggering events at bay, sustaining trader consensus around an 80% implied probability for no resolution to “Something” in the May market. Routine elections in the United Kingdom, Scotland, Wales, and the Bahamas occurred without spillover into broader instability, while Latvia’s prime ministerial resignation and Russia’s Victory Day parade remained contained. No ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, Federal Reserve rate cut, or military escalation involving Israel, the United States, and Iran has materialized through late May. Upcoming Colombian presidential voting and scheduled summits have not yet produced outcomes that would shift probabilities. This stability reflects the absence of the specific catalysts outlined in the market rules, allowing the current pricing to reflect ongoing quietude in those high-impact areas.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問