Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting expectations of a qualifying event such as Iranian regime collapse, U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump leaving office before December 31, 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and active markets pricing heightened risks of military action or regime instability by April 30, have sustained downward pressure on "Yes" shares despite no triggers through Q1. Related short-term contracts on ceasefires, Kharg Island control, and U.S./Israel targets underscore trader focus on near-term escalations, while 2026 midterm elections add domestic volatility potential without directly qualifying.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$447,114 Vol.
$447,114 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$447,114 Vol.
$447,114 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting expectations of a qualifying event such as Iranian regime collapse, U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump leaving office before December 31, 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and active markets pricing heightened risks of military action or regime instability by April 30, have sustained downward pressure on "Yes" shares despite no triggers through Q1. Related short-term contracts on ceasefires, Kharg Island control, and U.S./Israel targets underscore trader focus on near-term escalations, while 2026 midterm elections add domestic volatility potential without directly qualifying.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$447,114終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting expectations of a qualifying event such as Iranian regime collapse, U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump leaving office before December 31, 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and active markets pricing heightened risks of military action or regime instability by April 30, have sustained downward pressure on "Yes" shares despite no triggers through Q1. Related short-term contracts on ceasefires, Kharg Island control, and U.S./Israel targets underscore trader focus on near-term escalations, while 2026 midterm elections add domestic volatility potential without directly qualifying.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$447,114終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting expectations of a qualifying event such as Iranian regime collapse, U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump leaving office before December 31, 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and active markets pricing heightened risks of military action or regime instability by April 30, have sustained downward pressure on "Yes" shares despite no triggers through Q1. Related short-term contracts on ceasefires, Kharg Island control, and U.S./Israel targets underscore trader focus on near-term escalations, while 2026 midterm elections add domestic volatility potential without directly qualifying.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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