Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Italy's judicial reform referendum will not pass, driven primarily by the constitutional requirement for a 50%+1 turnout quorum in abrogative referendums, which has derailed similar votes historically—including the 2022 justice questions (30% turnout) and 2021 cannabis reform (20%). Recent polls indicate expected participation below 30%, with limited campaign momentum from major parties amid competing EU elections focus. Low public engagement and fragmented opposition to the Cartabia reform further suppress mobilization. Realistic shifts could stem from a surprise Constitutional Court ruling or viral grassroots surge boosting turnout, though precedents suggest minimal risk before any resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$1,145,663 Vol.
$1,145,663 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$1,145,663 Vol.
$1,145,663 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
音量
$1,145,663終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
音量
$1,145,663終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Italy's judicial reform referendum will not pass, driven primarily by the constitutional requirement for a 50%+1 turnout quorum in abrogative referendums, which has derailed similar votes historically—including the 2022 justice questions (30% turnout) and 2021 cannabis reform (20%). Recent polls indicate expected participation below 30%, with limited campaign momentum from major parties amid competing EU elections focus. Low public engagement and fragmented opposition to the Cartabia reform further suppress mobilization. Realistic shifts could stem from a surprise Constitutional Court ruling or viral grassroots surge boosting turnout, though precedents suggest minimal risk before any resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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